Final Oscar Predictions

So, here it is. The last 12 hours before The Academy Awards start. Crazy. Of course, I won't get to see them for another 18 or so. I prefer to not know any of the winners beforehand so I wait until the awards are shown in Prime Time. I have to avoid the TV because they have news updates, like, every hour (god knows why) and they will spoil it. Same for the internet. ugh. Of course, nothing was ever as bad as when the network that was airing the awards decided to spoil Best Actress just before it was to be announced. It was the 2002 awards and Best Actress was coming up after the break. Was it to be Sissy or Halle or would my biggest Oscar wishes be fulfilled and see Nicole Kidman walk to the stage for Moulin Rouge!? The suspence was killing me, they went to an ad break and they shows Halle Berry on stage holding an Oscar and crying and I was like "...must...kill...all...humans..." and then my head exploded.

Let's begin, shall we?

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Predicted Winner: The Departed
Alternate: Little Miss Sunshine
My Vote: Little Miss Sunshine

So, as long as Babel doesn't win (which it very well could) I'll be happy. I haven't seen Letters from Iwo Jima, but I'm sure it's much much better than Flags of Our Fathers. What a delight to not have this contest down to just two or even one contender. "Relevance" be gone. I'm predicting The Departed for no real reason. I suppose it makes sense. It won the DGA, WGA and ACE and every movie that's won that combo has won the Oscar, so. I was going to say Little Miss Sunshine, but then that pesky ol' Indie Spirit CURSE popped up (it just won Best Picture), so I figured it wouldn't win. lol. So technical, huh? I think this year we can actually use reasons like that!

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Predicted Winner: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Alternate: Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
My Vote: Paul Greengrass, United 93

It would have been interesting to see if Greengrass could have had an actual bonafide shot at winning this category despite not having a correlating Picture nomination. Still, if Scorsese loses this category this year... I don't know who is gonna pay but whoever does win is gonna be apologising their arse off.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Predicted Winner: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Alternate: Peter O'Toole, Venus
My Vote: N/A - I've only seen one of these nominees (Whitaker), which I liked but didn't love (essentially because I despise the film with a deep-hearted passion).

I really want to predict O'Toole. I seriously think many will put his name down, but I just think Whitaker will eke it out in the end. I really don't wanna face the fact that The Last King of Scotland will be an "Academy Award winning" film, but such is life.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Predicted Winner: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Alternate: Is there a point to this? Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
My Vote: Penelope Cruz, Volver

If Mirren loses this, will this go down as the biggest upset in Academy history? I say so. I really don't think she can lose, but boy... imagine if she did, huh?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Predicted Winner: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Alternate: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
My Vote: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Arkin. Yes. Arkin over Murphy. I've been predicting this for months (and especially after the nominations were announced and Dreamgirls had such a small presense in the big awards). I think Arkin will be led to victory the same way people like James Coburn and Jack Palance to wins. Old fogies get one last chance for gold. Weird symetry between Arkin and Palance. Palance was nominated for Oscars in 1953 and 1954 before a big giant gap and finally being nominated again and winning for a comedy in 1992. Arkin was nominated in 1967 and 1969 before a big gap and then being nominated for a comedy in 2007. Plus, Arkin has the advantage of a Best Picture contender. Of course, Murphy could just as easily win it, but I think they'll choose Arkin. And Hounsou? I routinely forget he's even nominated. LOL!

I do wonder how they're going to select a clip of Wahlberg's to show. That was a foul mouth he had there.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikucho, Babel

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
My Vote: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

So, yeah, it wouldn't be as big of a shock if Hudson lost here (unlike Mirren), but I still don't think it will happen. If an upset does occur I predict it won't be cutey Abi Breslin, but actually Rinko Kikuchi (one award I actually wouldn't care if Babel won. As long as it's Rinko. Not Adriana. Me no like Barraza in Babel). Breslin isn't precocious (sp?) enough. Although it could happen. But, yeah, this is Hudson's to lose.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita, Paul Haggis, Letters from Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen

Predicted Winner: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Alternate: Guillera Arriaga, Babel
My Vote: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine

Well, I suppose three nominees out of five being wholey "original" is at least progress! I think this is Arndt's prize to take home. If not him then, sure, Morgan (better for this than The Last King of Scotland), but I actually think Arriaga is the bigger spoiler candidate. In a The Pianist type sideswipe, I can totally see the "important" (but still third ranked) contender taking the prize - Babel especially, since I don't see Iwo Jima or Pan's Labyrinth taking the prize.

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED
Sasha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazar, Todd Phillips, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Alfonso Cuaron, Timothy J Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby, Children of Men
William Monahan, The Departed
Todd Field, Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal

Predicted Winner: William Monahan, The Departed
Alternate: Alfonso Cuaron et al, Children of Men
My Vote: Alfondo Cuaron et al, Children of Men

Monahan's swell Departed screenplay seems like the best fit for the win here. It's the only Best Picture contender (how rare for Adapted Screenplay to be so barron!) and next to Little Children is the most word-reliant. If there's a chink in it's armour it may be the groundswell support for Children of Men, which looked like it could have swollen a few other categories (it got surprising nods for Editing and Screenplay). If enough voters saw it after nominations I think it's within shot. I do think that Monahan is taking it though, giving my predicted Best Picture winner three trophies for the night.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Vilmos Zsigmond, The Black Dahlia
Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Dick Pope, The Illusionist
Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth
Wally Pfister, The Prestige

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Alternate: Wally Pfister, The Prestige
My Vote: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men

Sure, Lubezki seems like the natural winner (his work on the film has been praised to the heavens), but as a select few have pointed it, it's not typically rewarded stuff. It's not filled with vistas or swaying grass. However, on the upside, none of the other contenders have vistas or swaying grass either, so I'm sticking with Lubezki. However, if one is to upstage him, I predict two-time nominee for a Chris Nolan film, Wally Pfister. It's the most typically "pretty" film what with all that low lighting and candle flames and such.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING
Douglas Crise, Stephen Merrione, Babel
Steven Rosenblum, Blood Diamond
Alfonso Cuaron, Alex Rodriguez, Children of Men
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Departed
Clare Douglas, Richard Pearson, Christopher Rouse, United 93

Predicted Winner: United 93 co.
Alternate: Babel's duo or Schoonmaker for The Departed
My Vote: United 93 co.

Thelma is widely recognised as a genius for a reason, I know that, but I don't know if they will give her a second Oscar in the span of three years. That happens more often in the techs than in acting true, but nevertheless. I'm going on a limb and predicting the United 93 gang take it. Anyone who actually saw that film is surely going to vote for them. This is the second of two categories I could survive having Babel win (Supporting Actress for Kikuchi being the other).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
John Myhre, Nancy Haigh, Dreamgirls
Jeannine Claudia Oppewall, Gretchen Rau, Leslie E Rollins, The Good Shepherd
Eugenio Caballero, Pilar Revuelta, Pan's Labyrinth
Rich Heinrichs, Cheryl Carasik, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Nathan Crowly, Julie Ochipinti, The Prestige

Predicted Winner: Eugenio Caballero, Pilar Revuelta, Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: John Myhre, Nancy Haigh, Dreamgirls
My Vote: Eugenio Caballero, Pilar Revuelta, Pan's Labyrinth

If there is a god and he watches the Oscars (bitch plz, what else has he got to do?!) then surely Caballero and Revuelta will win for their stunning work on Pan's Labyrinth. I certainly hope they're not beaten by those art directed curtains from Dreamgirls. I could definitely handle a Prestige upset though.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Chung Man Yee, Curse of the Golden Flower
Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada
Sharen Davis, Dreamgirls
Milena Canonero, Marie Antoinette
Consolata Boyle, The Queen

Predicted Winner: Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada
Alternate: Sharen Davis, Dreamgirls
My Vote: Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada

Sure, it may be a bit of a wishful thinking prediction, but I really do think Field has as good a shot as any. I point you in the direction of the 1995 Academy Awards. That year had showy theatrical costumes (Bullets Over Broadway = Dreamgirls), French regal wear (Queen Margot = Marie Antoinette) and showy action garb (Maverick = Curse of the Golden Flower). It also had dowdy but exquisite (Little Women = The Queen. It's stretching, but whatever). But the winner? The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, a film filled with contemporary-but-niche designs. Yes, the costume branch rarely nominates contemporary work, but there are thousands of others who vote and while Dreamgirls is the most logical choice (as, oh, Little Women or Bullets Over Broadway were I presume) I predict they will choose the designer duds of The Devil Wears Prada.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SCORE
Gustavo Santaolla, Babel
Thomas Newman, The Good German
Phillip Glass, Notes on a Scandal
Javier Navarette, Pan's Labyrinth
Alexandre Desplat, The Queen

Predicted Winner: Javier Navarette, Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: Alexandre Desplat, The Queen
My Vote: Thomas Newman, The Good German

Foreign films seem to do good in this category (they use a wider, or just plain different, assortment of instruments so they sound more exotic to casual observers - aka Academy members) and Navarette's work is indeed sublime. Although I really think Desplat has a shot if people want to reward him in general. I do feel bad for Newman though. His German score is ace if that's your sort of thing, so it's a shame he'll (most probably) go home empty handed for the eighth time. The less said about Glass' bombastic Scandal score the better, okay?

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SONG
Melissa Etheridge, "I Need to Wake Up", An Inconvenient Truth
Henry Kreiger, Scott Cutler, Anne Previn, "Listen", Dreamgirls
Henry Kreiger, Siedah Garrett, "Love You I Do", Dreamgirls
Randy Newman, "Our Town", Cars
Henry Kreiger, Willie Reale, "Patience", Dreamgirls

Predicted Winner: "Love You I Do" from Dreamgirls
Alternate: Everything else. Really.
My Vote: "Listen" from Dreamgirls

Voters seem to make good choices when it comes to picking the winner of this category. They chose the latin Motorcycle Diaries track over everything else and songs like "Lose Yourself" and "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp" too. While I'd love to see Etheridge up there (I do love her, I just don't like the song) and I think they could just as easily reward Newman for the oldschool (just like the film) "Our Town", I really do think Dreamgirls will win. I'm predicting "Love You I Do" because it is actually the more authentic in terms of the film's period setting and such. I know I'll most likely be proven wrong come tomorrow, but whatever. I seriously see all these nominees as possible winners (except maybe "Patience", which seems like overkill for Dreamgirls).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano, Apocalypto
Kazuhiro Tsuji, Bill Corso, Click
David Marti, Montse Ribe, Pan's Labyrinth

Predicted Winner: Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: Apocalypto
My Vote: Pan's Labyrinth

I so hope Pan's Labyrinth wins this. It's Pan and Pale Man creations are all-time worship worthy. Plus, I don't want Apocalypto and Click to be "Academy Award winner" films. Blegh.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P Russell, Fernando Camara, Apocalypto
Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ivan Sharrock, Blood Diamond
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie B Burton Dreamgirls
John T Reitz, David E Campbell, Gregg Rudolf, Walt Martin, Flags of Our Fathers
Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes, Lee Orloff, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Predicted Winner: The crew from Dreamgirls
Alternate: The crew from Flags of Our Fathers
My Vote: The crew from Pirates of the Caribbean

Musicals seem to win here (unless you're Moulin Rouge!, assholes) and it seems like a natural vote for the Academy member who really doesn't know what this wacky concept for sound design is. "Is it loud?" "Yes!" "Then that's a tick from me!"

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Sean McCormack, Kami Asgar, Apocalypto
Lon Bender, Blood Diamond
Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman, Flags of Our Fathers
Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman, Letters from Iwo Jima
George Watters II, Christopher Boyes, Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest

Predicted Winner: Those dudes from Letters from Iwo Jima
Alternate: The guys from Pirates of the Caribbean
My Vote: Ditto, the guys from Pirates

Firstly, what's the point in having this category at all (like, seriously, merge it with the sound one above you losers. That Boyes guy did the sound AND the sound editing, too. Ugh.). Secondly, why are the nominees the exact same except for one film Iwo Jima in for Dreamgirls. Thirdly, I hate this category because it makes the ceremony unnecessarily longer. Two of the movies have the exact same nominees! Aagh! Anyway. It seems voters like to throw votes towards Best Picture nominees so I'm going with the Iwo Jima boys. I hope Pirates wins though because they deserve it (plus, then if Iwo Jima wins Best Picture it will have one win total. LOL)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
John Knoll, Hal T Hickel, Charles Gibson, Allen Hall, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Boyd Shermis, Kim Libreri, Chas Jarrett, John Frazier, Poseidon
Mark Stetson, Richard R Hoover, Neil Corbould, Superman Returns

Predicted Winner: Pirates, obviously
Alternate: Poseidon
My Vote: Pirates

This one seems sewn up for Pirates. Superman Returns makes me sleepy just thinking about it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Cars, John Lasseter
Happy Feet, George Miller
Monster House, Gil Kenan

Predicted Winner: Cars
Alternate: Happy Feet
My Vote: HOW DO I CHOOSE?!

So, for once, I really quite love every title nominated. I'd love to see George Miller on stage accepting an Oscar (and it will also quell the inevitable Aussie media who will stab themselves in the neck if an Aussie doesn't win), but the further I get away from them, I think I like Cars more (chalk it up to my weird Americana fetish), but I'd also be very veeery happy with a Monster House win because maybe it will slow the talking-animals movies.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
After the Wedding, Denmark
Days of Glory, Algeria
The Lives of Others, Germany
Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
Water, Canada

Predicted Winner: Pan's Labyrinth
Alternate: The Lives of Others
My Vote: Pan's Labyrinth, although I've only seen 2/5. Blah.

So, I'm this (*squeezes thumb and index finger together*) close to predicting The Lives of Others, but I decided not to. I think Pan's European feel will get it across the line. Still... WHERE THE FUCK IS VOLVER?!?!?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil, Amy Berg, Frank Donner
An Inconvenient Truth, Davis Guggenheim
Iraq in Fragments, James Longly, Yahya Sinno
Jesus Camp, Heidi Ewing, Rachel Grady
My Country, My Country, Laura Poitras, Jocelyn Glatzer

Predicted Winner: An Inconvenient Truth
Alternate: Deliver Us From Evil
My Vote: umm... I've only seen Truth and, suffice to say, I wasn't impressed)

Okay, bare with me! If there is to be a big mothafuckin' upset during the show I really hope it's here. Cause, ya know what? An Inconvenient Truth doesn't deserve to be an Academy Award winner. It just doesn't. It's lazy filmmaking. Maybe if Guggenheim and Gore had made a documentary about global warming it would have been good, but as is, it's documenting what? A slideshow? Here's the thing - MAKING AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH WAS NOT CHALLENGING. They set up a camera at a few of his lectures and filmed it. Big freakin' whoop! Guggenheim (notice, Al Gore had no part in the making of the actual film, hence his non-nomination) didn't have to research. He didn't have to investigate. He didn't have to even know the subject he was making a movie about. He just had to plonk a camera down and press [record]. Funding was probably about as easy to come by as sugar in a candy factory. Then take a movie like Deliver Us From Evil or Jesus Camp (which I admit I haven't seen, but it's not like the reviews have been dirge on their front) which required their filmmakers to go to great lengths to even get their film off the ground let alone research, investigage, find out the truth. That's what documentaries should do. They should have a subject and investigate it. An Inconvenient Truth did none of that (a bit of investigation into Al Gore notwithstanding). As I've said before, it's a noble movie and it's a topic worthy of cinema (who'd ever thing The Day After Tomorrow would be ahead of it's time), but An Inconvenient Truth was not good documenting (or documentary-making). Just because a subject matter is good, doesn't make a film good.

Adding to this, the subject of Deliver Us From Evil is one that is just as utterly compelling and horrifying and should be shoved in people's faces just as much as Al Gore's desire to "save the world" (*snort*). Where are the voters who famously snubbed movies that made money? (Hi to the greatest documentary - and one of the greatest movies period - I've ever seen Hoop Dreams) Blah. /rant

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
The Blood of Yingzhou District, Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon
Recycled Life, Leslie Iwerks, Mike Glad
Rehearsing a Dream, Karen Goodman, Kirk Simon
Two Hands: The Leon Fleisher Story, Nathaniel Kahn, Susan Rose Behr

Predicted Winner: The Blood of Yingzhou District
Alternate: Two Hands: The Leon Fleisher Story

I dunno. They sound important.

BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATION
The Danish Poet, Torill Kove
Lifted, Gary Rydstrom
The Little Matchgirl, Roger Allers, Don Hahn
Maestro, Geza M Toth
No Time for Nuts, Chris Renaud, Mike Thurmeier

Predicted Winner: The Little Matchgirl
Alternate: Maestro
My Vote: I've only seen Maestro unfortunately. I'd love to see the rest, but they're only on iTunes USA

Apparently The Little Matchgirl is a devastatingly sad little film, so I say it wins.

BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Binta and the Great Idea, Javier Fesser, Luis Manso
Eramos Pocos, Borja Cobeaga
Helmer and Son, Soron Pilmark, Kim Magnusson
The Saviour, Peter Templeton, Stuart Parkyn
West Bank Story, Ari Sandel

Predicted Winner: The Saviour
Alternate: West Bank Story
My Vote: Well, I've seen The Saviour and that's it.

I'm predicting the Australian Saviour wins because I don't know any of the others and it makes just as much sense as a musical set in the west bank. Right?

Wow. That took a long freakin' time! Like, literally, it's been two hours since I started typing. Granted, I've been doing some other stuff on the net at the same time, but, still. Wow. Anyway.

Here's hoping I do alright. Thing is, if my predictions all come to fruition then I've be a very happy chappy because in most categories I don't really mind what wins because they chose some great stuff this year. Surely, there are some things that I'll be peeved, but even Babel winning certain things ranks as "awesome" compared to many of the disasters of recent years (hi Halle, hi A Beautiful Mind, etc). So, yeah, except for the whole An Inconvenient Truth debacle, I'm sure to be happy to matter what, but if my predictions are right then... YAY!

'til then. Goodbye.

Oscars Roundup

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

How I Went: I predicted 4 of these, as did most people. I had Dreamgirls in the space that's currently occupied by Iwo Jima.

Thoughts: Well... er... wow. I don't particularly care that Dreamgirls got snubbed (not like if, say, Moulin Rouge! or Chicago had missed), but it was my favourite of the bunch and now it's not there. Hmmm. I'm thinking Dreamgirls just didn't get enough #1 or #2 votes (understandable, having seen the film), but it's still a shock.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

How I Went: Another 4/5, and again I had predicted Dreamgirls's Bill Condon instead of GOD Clint Eastwood for Letters from Iwo Jima (who was an alternate).

Thoughts: I knew Greengrass would be nominated. I knew it. I've been saying it since April. It was just the type of director/film this branch rewards. The Eastwood nomination... well, that's not surprising really, but still.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, HalfNelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

How I Went: 3.5/5. I had Sasha Baron Cohen instead of Gosling (my alternate) and even though I predicted Leonardo, I predicted him to be nominated for The Departed.

Thoughts: Not one of these men is in a Best Picture nominee - crazy! And Leonardo for Blood Diamond and not The Departed - crazy! Also, Blood Diamond got two acting nominations, and The Departed got one - crazy!

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruze, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, Thhe Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

How I Went: 5/5 here

Thoughts: *grumbles* Oh well. The best year for actresses in ages and we get the same five nominees at every awards show.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

How I Went: I got 3/5 here, correctly picking Arkin, Murphy and Wahlberg, but I missed out on Affleck and Nicholson (that was a big surprise, but a nice one!) for Hounsou and Haley (my major alternate).

Thoughts: At least this year's craziest category made way for three newcomers instead of sticking with people like Nicholson. I know I should be, but I was surprised to see Hounsou show up. I suppose I should see that movie now. It has 5 nominations in total, which makes it pretty major. Blah.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

How I Went: Yeah, 5/5 here. Pretty standard. I really was hoping for an Emily Blunt surprise, but...

Thoughts: Even though it didn't get a Best Picture nomination, I think Jennifer has this sown up. Eddie up there not so much, but Jennifer I reckon is gonna get it.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, Letters from Iwo Jima
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen

How I Went: 3/5 here, I predicted Volver and United 93 over Pan's Labyrinth and Iwo Jima, which were my two alternates.

Thoughts: Disappointing to not see Volver or U93 there, but alas... there's two nominees called Guillermo! And now Paul Haggis becomes a five time nominee in the span of three years. Isn't that crazy!?!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sasha Baron Cohen and co, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Alfonso Cuaron and co, Children of Men
William Monaghan, The Departed
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandel

How I Went: 3/5 here too. I got the middle three, but predicted The Devil Wears Prada and Thank You For Smoking instead of Borat! and Scandel.

Thoughts: So happy Borat! got in, but sad for The Devil Wears Prada. Oh well. What a diverse and interesting bunch though! There's comedy, there's sci-fi, there's action, there's melodrama and there's straight drama.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

How I Went: Yeah, 3/3

Thoughts: I really hope Happy Feet can win, but if it does go to Cars I'll be happy cause I love that movie too. It'll just be kind of frustrating cause Ratatouille looks solid for next year and this category is in jeopardy of becoming the Pixar Category. Plus, I want George Miller to have an Oscar.

ANIMATED SHORT
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

I didn't predict this category. Way to go for the nominees though!

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Algeria, Days of Glory [Indegines]
Canada, Water
Denmark, After the Wedding
Germany, The Lives of Others
Mexico, Pan's Labyrinth

How I Went: 3/5 here, picking Volver over After the Wedding and Blackbook instead of Days of Glory, which was my alternate.

Thoughts: WHERE IS VOLVER?!?! There is no excuse for Almodovar's Volver to not be here. Although, I'd really like people to stop insinuating that Deepa Mehta's quite superb Water was the one was knocked Volver out, when it was clearly After the Wedding.

ART DIRECTION
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

How I Went: 3/5. I predicted Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth and The Prestige (I think I was one of the only people who predicted Chris Nolan's fabo film to get any notice) but had predicted Children of Men and Flags of Our Father.

Thoughts: Didn't see The Good Shepherd coming, but the Pirates nod is acceptable to me. The design was really great there all around. So happy that The Prestige got noticed (and that I predicted it!). It got another nod for Cinematography (below) so I'm happy. It totally deserved them. That there was so Children of Men is sad, but I said it months ago. While it was totally awards-worthy, I didn't think it would be nominated because a lot of it is just countrysides and houses.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

How I Went: I got 3/5 yet again, I missed on The Black Dahlia and The Prestige for Blood Diamond and Dreamgirls

Thoughts: My "OMG" prediction (the one that I could love to see happen) was The Black Dahlia, so umm... I'm sorta FUCKIN' HAPPY AS LARRY!!! Yeah. AND The Prestige and Children of Men!!!! This is always my favourite tech category, and this year they've gone above and beyond. YAY!

COSTUME DESIGN
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

How I Went: 4/5 here, missing on The Queen for The Painted Veil. The Queen wasn't even on my radar.

Thoughts: Okay, so after watching the nomination announcements I thought Paul Greengrass's Director nod was my favourite, but no - my favourite is Patricia Fields' nomination for The Devil Wears Prada. Holy jesus! That is brilliant. SO HAPPY! Man! I love it so much! The rest are pretty great too. Even The Queen - finally recognising that contemporary costuming that effects your perception of character is just as awards worthy as same-ol-same-ol period costumes. EEEEEP! So happy.

FILM EDITING
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

How I Went: 3/5. I predicted The Queen and Dreamgirls instead of Children of Men and Blood Diamond

Thoughts: So happy that United 93 and Children of Men got in. Here's hoping that they don't give the prize to Babel and actually give it to a movie whose editing was one of the very reasons why it was so good (United 93). It's possible considering the editing is quite flashy. Sorta glad Dreamgirls didn't get in - some of that editing was annoying.

MAKE UP
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

How I Went: 1/3 only getting Pan's Labyrinth

Thoughts: LOL. Click is now an Oscar nominees. Kris Tapley keeps mentioning Time Machine, but that year there were only two films shortlisted! This year there wasn't any excuse for not going with something else. Blech. What a bad category. I'm pretty sure Pan's will get this.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

How I Went: 2/3, missing Poseidon

Thoughts: Whatever.

ORIGINAL SCORE
Gustavo Santaolalla, Babel
Thomas Newman, The Good German
Phillip Glass, Notes on a Scandal
Javier Navarette, Pan's Labyrinth
Alexandre Desplat, The Queen

How I Went: Er. So, I'm saying I got 2, but really only 1. I predicted Babel, but I predicted different scores for Glass and Desplat so that's .5 for each. I thought Glass would get in for The Illusionist and Desplat wouldget in for The Painted Veil. Also predicted DaVinci Code instead of the dead Good German

Thoughts: Hmmm. I wish Desplat had got a nod for The Painted Veil, but at least he's now an ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE! Hopefully next time he does a score as genius as Birth or Painted Veil he will get in. Still, I liked The Queen's score. I thought Oscar regular Newman wouldn't make it for a change because his film was dead. Hmm. Sad that Clint Mansell didn't make it for The Fountain

ORIGINAL SONG
An Inconvenient Truth, "I Need To Wake Up"
Cars, "Our Town"
Dreamgirls, "Listen"
Dreamgirls, "Love You I Do"
Dreamgirls, "Patience"

How I Went: I got 3/5, plus an alternate. Missed the last two Dreamgirls songs for songs from Happy Feet and Bobby

Thoughts: Three nominations from Dreamgirls! Holy crap. But, you know what? I don't care. Apart from them all being great songs, they are actually IN the movie. They aren't like the Oscar-nominated songs from Chicago, The Phantom of the Opera and the Globe-nominated Producers song. They were just over the credits, the Dreamgirls songs are incorporated into the movie and given proper scenes. So, way to go.

SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

How I Went: 2/5. I had The Departed, Casino Royale and Happy Feet

Thoughts: Meh. Whatever.

SOUND EDITING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

How I Went: 2/5. I missed my predictions of Cars, Happy Feet and Superman Returns althought when I was doing my predictions I really couldn't have cared any less. I reiterate though: "Why is there five nominees this year? NOBODY CARES" Seriously. THese match 4/5 with the sound mixing category. What's the point?

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

How I Went: I got 4/5, missing Shut Up & Sing for My Country, My Country

Thoughts: Aww, I wanted the Dixie Chicks to show up! Oh well. I haven't seen any of these, so I don't really have an opinion, although it'd be nice if the standard Truth could make way for something like Deliver Us From Evil

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

I did predict this category. Congrats to these guys though.

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Binta and the Great Idea
Eramos Pocos
Helmer and Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

I didn't predict this category, but I hope The Saviour can win. It's Australian (or made by Australians at least), but congrats to the others anyway.

So... yeah. Hmmm. Interesting lot. Some disappointments (VOLVER!!!) but they're made better (slightly) by stuff like Greengrass, Patricia Field and love for Children of Men and Borat.

Oscar Nominations - First Thoughts

omgomgomgholyjesusomgomgomgwtf?

WOW

I did not see some of those things coming. Most notably no Dreamgirls for Best Picture. Just... wow. I'm sort of shocked. It got eight nominations, yet not Picture, Director or Screenplay nominations. Wow. Three of those nominations were for Original Song though, so that's sort of crazy.

Also, No Jack Nicholson! I'm excited about that, especially since Mark Wahlberg got in instead of him.

Letters From Iwo Jima with Picture, Director and Screenplay nominations? Wow. Eastwood has officially been crowned as God. And Paul Haggis makes it three in a row. How the fuck did that happen?

But, the biggest and saddest loss... No Volver for Best Foreign Language Film. What. The. Fuck. ???. Seriously. HUH? That makes no sense at all. That's crazy. Utterly crazy.

So very very happy to see Paul Greengrass nominated for Best Director, and the team behind Borat and Children of Men nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Happy Feet in Animated Film.

It was delightful to see Salma Hayek scream in delight for Penelope Cruz and then get choked up over the nominations for Babel and Pan's Labyrinth (which got one of the highest totals!)

Totally wild to see The Prestige up for two totally deserved nods. Same for THE BLACK DAHLIA!!!!!!!

THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA FOR BEST COSTUME DESIGN!!!!!!

Click is officially an Oscar nominee! LOL. WTF?

Children of Men for Screenplay, Cinematography AND Editing. YES.

Wow.

The Academy definitely gave us some lovely presents this morning... but also stole some candy from some babies. I'll obviously write a more cohesive discussion later. But I'm really tired.

Golden Globe Predictions

Umm... so I don't really care about the Globes. I mean, I do is that I'm totally excited to watch the very first televised awards show of the year. Well, the first for us, I know those lucky Americans got the, *laughs*, Broadcast Film Critics Asosciation awards - LOL. We weren't so lucky.


But, um, yeah, I dunno. I haven't seen Dreamgirls (out here Thursday), Little Children or Bobby and my favourite film out of those nominated for Best Picture is The Devil Wears Prada (so it'll be great to, hopefully, see Meryl Streep take Best Actress). But, I dunno, most of the films I'm gunzo about aren't nominated - the United 93s and the Children of Mens.

Titles like The Queen, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine and especially Babel don't rouse enough excitement in me. I like them all well enough (except for Babel, which I'm starting to like less and less as the viewing passes from my memory), but... yeah. Plus, the Globes weren't as excitingly off-centre this year. The only awards I hope go to certain people are Best Actress Musical/Comedy (Streep), Best Original Score (Desplat or Mansell PLEASE!), Foreign Language Film (Volver) and Animated Film (Happy Feet). I know Mirren is winning Best Actress Drama although I'd love a Penelope Cruz upset, but it ain't happening unfortunately. I've only seen one nominee from Best Actor Drama and only two from each Best Actress category.

See, maybe if distributors would freakin' release movies down here I would be more excited. I may really want Dreamgirls to win. Or I might be hoping and preying for a Ben Affleck suprise (anything but Jack or Brad is alright by me). And I'm fairly sure Letters from Iwo Jima will win Foreign Language Film, but I really hope it doesn't just because it's an American film.


Ugh. Best Director is probably the category that peeves me off the most. Two noms for Clint is, in every way, excessive. Flags does not deserve to be there. Inarritu? INA-FUCKIN-RRITU? He directed that thing like some agressive 12-year-old with an ants nest and a magnifying glass. The strengths of The Queen weren't predominantly in Frears' direction. And Scorsese? Well, he directed it well, sure. I'm giving him that. I hope he wins. Anyway.

These predictions are basically to keep me sane. I hope Babel doesn't win. Please don't let it win...

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
The Queen

I dunno. It's British. It reminds me of The Hours. I don't really care though as long as it's not Babel

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Dreamgirls

It would be nice to see Little Miss Sunshine win considering it's Dreamgirls' only rival but, the only other nomination for that was for Toni Collette, which doesn't speak volumes. But, still, whatever. Either is fine (or Prada or Borat for that matter)

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

This seems logical. He directed it with aplomb, I just wish I liked the film more.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Peter O'Toole, Venus

*shrugs* whatever. I've only seen one of these men (Leo, The Departed). I couldn't care any less about this category if it was filled with five Leonardo DiCaprio performances.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat! Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

Surely this is the only logical choice. I think I'd die of laughter if Chiwetel Ejiofor won. Fact - he's probably my third favourite here (after Cohen and Eckhart).


BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Helen Mirren, The Queen

I suppose my only hope of a Cruz upset is if voters decide to give Mirren the win in Television (for either Elizabeth I or Prime Suspect 7) and decide to give the award here to Cruz. But, oh well. It won't happen. Good for Helen though. She is wonderful.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Surely, much like Musical/Comedy Actor, this is the only logical choice. God I love that movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Again, *shrugs*. I want Affleck or Wahlberg to cause an explosion, but without that, I'd much prefer Murphy to Nicholson or Pitt who don't really deserve to be anywhere near awards shows for these performances. Especially Pitt. Yikes. Anyway.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Seems to make sense, really. I'd die for an Emily Blunt surprise, but I love that Boomie is getting all this love. She's super.

BEST SCREENPLAY
The Queen

I've only seen three of these, and this was my favourite and the most deserving. Although I totally reckon I'd be in the Notes on a Scandal camp if I had seen it. It just seems like my kinda bitchfest movie.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The Painted Veil

Because I'll cry if Hans Zimmer wins and I wanna look like a fool for not predicting Babel to win anything (I'm not really sure why I'm predicting that.) But, yeah, I love Desplat, so if it's not him then I hope Clint Mansell. They're both delicious scores (even though I haven't seen the movie, I have iTunes to thank). And, well, has anyone even heard of this Nomad movie? Didn't think so.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Happy Feet

Because it's animated and a musical and I think it would've taken Thank You For Smoking's spot in Musical/Comedy Picture if this ghetto category wasn't put in place. Let it be known that I don't mind the Animated Feature category existing at the Oscars. People, like Nat, may argue that this category just keeps animated films from getting Best Picture nominations, but - let's face it - only one had ever done so beforehand. Stuff like the Toy Story movies couldn't manage it before the enactment of the category and many others have come and gone. And I'd rather Miyazaki have an Oscar than a failed Best Picture attempt.

--But. The Globes? The Globes awarded Toy Story 2 their Best Picture Musical/Comedy trophy! They've nominated animated films a lot. So now here is a legit case that they're being ghettosised into this category and won't be able to get Best Picture nominations. Anyway. I hope Happy Feet wins. It's special.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Letters From Iwo Jima

God, could this be any more obnoxious. Ugh.

NBR - WTF?

I haven't read anybody else's opinions on the NBR yet, so sorry if this is repetition to all you Oscar prognasticators. The National Board of Review are sort of notorious for going off on their own weird tangents. It's something that always makes them at least interesting and this year was no different. No Dreamgirls or The Queen (two films that seem like Oscar sure bets), yet there is The Devil Wears Prada (thankfully, at least one awards body has recognised it, next up HFPA). They continue to adore Edward Zwick. They awarded him Best Director for his culture clash slash history vulture film The Last Samurai and now placed his Blood Diamond (a movie whose buzz has died about so quickly it was as if it was a character in a Texas Chainsaw Massacre film). They also liked History Boys, but not Little Children.

But the big story to come out of the NBR is, quite scarily, they really fuckin' loved Clint's 1-2 punch of WWII films. Not only did Letters from Iwo Jima win their Best Film prize (a contest I thought it was inneligable in because it's in Japanese and the NBR don't allow foreign language films for Best Picture, like the HFPA). They also rewarded Flags of our Fathers with a spot on their top 10. I was not a fan of that movie, but I suppose the best thing to come out of this is that perhaps voters will get confused and it'll knock each of them out of the ring... or they'll both show up and the awards will be ridiculous.

Anyway. Let's see how I went.

NBR TOP 10
Winner: Letters From Iwo Jima

Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags of our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil

I got 4/10 here. LOL! I predicted Babel, The Departed, Notes on a Scandal (the one I predicted to win) and The Painted Veil. The rest of my predicted top 10 were Children of Men, Dreamgirls, Little Children, A Prairie Home Companion, The Queen and United 93. Really surprising there.

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

I predicted this. He's gonna win the Oscar surely.

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

I predicted this. Whitaker may very well become the critics' choice. We'll see.

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, The Queen

I predicted this one too (didn't everybody?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond

Again, they really like Ed Zwick's movies for whatever reason (they're usually not good). I predicted Eddie Murphy to take it for Dreamgirls

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration

I keep pondering who will be this year's Amy Adams or Catherine Keener. Two people who weren't serious contenders before the awards season, but who became the power hitters with the critics. Thing is, apparently For Your Consideration is bad so O'Hara has that against her. But... you never know. Maybe critics will fall for O'Hara. I predicted Cate Blanchett for her annual onslaught of films.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Volver

Yeah, I predicted this. Strangely, I wavered for a bit and thought of predicting The Lives of Others, a film that didn't even show up on their Top 5 Foreign list (Pan's Labyrinth, Curse of Golden Flower, Days of Glory and Water made up the rest). I predicted Volver, Pan's and Zhang Yimou's other film Riding Alone for Thousands of Miles to place alongside The Lives of Others and, er, Letters from Iwo Jima.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
An Inconvenient Truth

Yeah, this seemed sorta predictable. Their top 5 were Truth, Shut Up & Sing, Iraq in Fragments, Word Play and 51 Birch Street. I so wanna see the Dixie Chicks at the Oscars so I hope Shut Up & Sing makes the Oscar list.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cars

I predicted Happy Feet.

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
The Departed

I was gonna say this but then I thought they'd spread the wealth more and give it to Bobby.

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

*sigh* how is this even remotely a "breakthrough"? Maybe he's a breakthrough to old fogie voters? I predicted Sasha Baron Cohen.

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
I predicted Hudson, so I score this point. I still don't know which of the Babel women will be Oscar nommed. Kikuchi or Barraza? Hmm...

BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Jason Reitman, Thank You For Smoking

Indicative of their "spread the wealth" mentality, the directors of Little Miss Sunshine didn't win this prize despite having a film in their top 10. I predicted, however, Ryan Fleck's directing of Half Nelson (which they gave a Breakthrough prize to, but for Ryan Gosling. Blah)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zach Helm, Stranger than Fiction

I predicted Almodovar for Volver. I thought this film's screenplay just sounded too good to ignore but the box office was middling and reviews weren't all that so I assumed it'd be thrown under the rug. Hmmm... we'll see where it goes from here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ron Nyswaner, The Painted Veil

I keep wanting to think that The Painted Veil will make a big push towards Oscar and get nominated in big categories including Best Picture, but now with Iwo Jima getting "it's a lock" status from several journos, it seems that there is only one spot vacant and that will likely go to Little Miss Sunshine. However, if that doesn't start showing off like a pre-pubescent beauty pageant queen, then it might miss the big boat altogether. For this category, incidentally, I predicted Todd Field for Little Children.

TOP 10 INDEPENDENT FILMS
Akeelah and the Bee
Bobby
Catch a Fire
Copying Beethoven
A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Half Nelson
The Illusionist
Lonesome Jim
Sherrybaby
10 Items or Less
Thank You For Smoking

This is their ridiculous list of other movies they decided to "honour" because they like looking as if they reward every studio in town.

Their Career Achievement Award went to Eli Wallach. He's probably best known for roles in the Godfather trilogy and... er... looking at his filmography doesn't really say much. He's in The Holiday, out next week, though!

Their Producer's Award went to Irwin Winkler, quite humourously. The Billy Wilder award went to Jonathan Demme, which is strange cause the only movie he directed this year was Heart of Gold, a Neil Young concert movie.

Lastly the Freedom of Expression award went to Deepa Mehta's Water and Oliver Stone's World Trade Center. I woulda though United 93 would have been a better candidate for this prize over WTC, but... oh well. Dem wacky NBR like to fool around with us.

And... that's all for now cause I'm hungry.

THE AWARDS SEASON HAS BEGUN!!!

National Board of Review Predix

I don't really care that much, but I thought I'd throw my own seriously misjudged predictions into the ring alongside people like Adam and Kris and, ya know, all the rest. Did I say I was gonna be seriously misjudged?

[edit - I just realised that I didn't predict them to award Little Miss Sunshine anything. Probably quite ridiculous, but atm I'll keep it that way - except for the young performer awards which they may or may not award]

BEST PICTURE
Notes on a Scandal

TOP 10
Babel, Children of Men, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, The Painted Veil, A Prairie Home Companion, The Queen, United 93

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, The Queen

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitake, The Last King of Scotland

(What a royal acting duo!?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal, Babel, The Good German (??)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Pedro Almodovar, Volver

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Todd Field, Little Children

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR
Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat!

BREAKTHROUGH ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Happy Feet

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Bobby

BEST DOCUMENTARY
An Inconvenient Truth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Volver
(although I really wanna say The Lives of Others just cause they like to mess around with us, ya know?)

TOP 5 FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Riding Alone for Thousands of Miles
Volver

BILLY WILDER AWARD
Clint Eastwood for directing Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima

SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
Guillermo del Toro for Writing/Directing/Producing Pan's Labyrinth
or
David Lynch for Writing/Directing/Producing/Distributing Inland Empire

FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION AWARD
Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat!

CAREER ACHIEVEMENT
Judi Dench - for acting
John Williams - film film composing

and I think they might throw the next category in for this year (they've done it before)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A YOUNG ACTOR
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

And they've sorta stopped doing the tech categories so I won't predict them. And... I'm done.

Linkssss

I feel like writing something but I don't. Like, I wanna write something out for you guys but I can't think of anything and the idea I do have is something I'm gonna do later (AFI predix). Oy.

So, umm, enjoy some links?

Jim Shembri at The Age discusses this year's crop of Australian films. He's definitely 100% correct on many points, but it's a bit much to ask somebody like Ana Kokkinos to give two wanks worth of interest to a movie like Kenny. I mean, really, she seems like the sort of director who cringes at the mere thought of watching a movie that's considered "mainstream". But, yes, 2006 was a very good year (there was also some really bad stuff, but thankfully all the movies that were successful were good) and was an improvement over 2005, which was a big fat giant improvement over 2004. A year I couldn't only get three contenders for the Best Australian Film category in the UMAs (which I'm gonna do this week hopefully).

The European Film Awards awarded their Best Film prize to Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's (I love that name) The Lives of Others, which also won Best Actor and Screenwriter. Almodovar's Volver won four including Best Director and Best Actress for Penelope Cruz.

The Satellite Award nominations were announced last week too. Umm... pretty standard, I reckon although I was surprised to see even they chose something like Venus over A Prairie Home Companion or Borat!. Oh well, there's no real threat of it getting a Best Picture nod at the big ceremonies, nor at the Globes where it's considered a Drama not a Comedy. I was happy to see Lily Tomlin nominated (for Prairie), Gretchen Mol (The Notorious Bettie Page) and the movie Aurora Borealis, which shows even they can have passionate choices out of left field. They laughably nominated seven movies for Best Picture Drama. That's 13 films nominated for Best Picture in total!

*sigh* Looks like Dave Poland gonna go ga-ga over Letters from Iwo Jima and say that it's a lock for Best Picture and Director. I was hoping for an Eastwood-free year, especially after the weird (in a bad way) Flags of our Fathers.

Seriously, download "Ghosts". It's pretty much the greatest song you'll hear all year. I've had it for ages, but i only just realised it's available for free download.

Oscar Predictions - 05/10/06

Here we go. Another round of Oscar predictions. Some categories are majorly redone since my last set of predictions, some are still similar. Some movies have come and gone, others are on their way and are riding buzz. All this and Penelope Cruz, whose nomination I've been predicting since April/May thank you very much.

BEST PICTURE
Babel
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The Queen

Flags strikes me as this year's Gangs of New York. A prestige film from a prestige director that gets a bunch of nominations, but doesn't win. I really didn't even want to put it in but I didn't know what to swap it with. I don't think Little Miss Sunshine will be able to hold up enough to get a Best Picture birth, and I think Bobby will suffer a bit too much from the Wiensteins (I still really wanna see it though) and all the other contenders have big question marks. So, for now, this what I'm going with. The Good German could easily be a non-factor (as I originally predicted) but who knows. And The Queen? Just a hunch.

BEST DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Steven Soderbergh, The Good German

God, I know this is not how it's gonna be. I know it's silly to predict Flags and yet not include the Clint. But I really wanted to include Almodovar and Greengrass but thought they would recognise Condon and Inarritu. I really wanted to put Scorsese in there too, but has the director's branch had enough of him and Eastwood hogging spots everytime they make a movie this decade? (er, Eastwood stuff at the start of the 2000s doesn't count, okay). And let us remember, they nominated Dangerous Liaisons, yet somehow didn't bother with Stephen Frears.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Good German
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

eep, I did it. I dropped Bening. As much as I think she looks great, and if she does get nominated she will surely be a threat for the win, I'm not that sure. I've been wavering on her for a while. The trailer makes her performance look like a female version of what someone like Gene Hackman did The Royal Tenenbaums and that didn't get up. But, still, this lineup is incredibly strong-looking. Someone has to give, even if they all look rock solid (except for Blanchett who I threw in due to my wave of Good German love)

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Blah, I dunno. Whitaker and O'Toole are looking solid. Nicholson is getting big press and as we saw with Streep in Actress, when all the talk is about one big star and if their role is feasibly up in the air, they usually gun for the Lead spot. And he's Jack so he'd probably get it too. Smith... I dunno. He's certainly gonna be out there trying to get it. I'm sure he has a few stories about his kids that nobody's heard before that will charm the pants off voters.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Emma Thompson, Stranger than Fiction
Julie Walters, Driving Lessons

Look, I'm sort of just throwing random things out there and seeing if they stick. Hudson still looks like the best bet despite nobody seeing the movie yet. Breslin is apparently excellent and not in the "i AM the craft of acting" way that Dakota Fanning always tries to appear. The last three spots I went on a weird crazy funk. I went on a limb with Blunt because she's young and hot and there's nobody else like her this year. Thompson looks to be supurb from the trailer and she needs a comeback. Lastly, Walters... yeah, I dunno. I love her so... Hmm, I really wanted to put down Rinko Kikuchi just fyi.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Tobey Maguire, The Good German
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel

Three of these are from movies I have for Best Picture so they make sense. Arkin... i dunno. He sorta makes sense. His last nomination was 1969! And this movie is much more widely seen than his last awards contender Thirteen Conversations about One Thing. Affleck could easily fall due to bad box office, which is funny considering everyone's saying this is his comeback from a string of flops.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Stranger than Fiction
Volver

Something about these nominations makes sense... but. I have a hunch about United 93. I know it's an odd one, but I have it. Let the record state that I wanted to put it in. These five however seem like viable candidates although not many people seem to be thinking about Stranger than Fiction for whatever reason. It seems like it fits perfectly into the Eternal Adaptions of John Malkovich vibe that they occasionally go for.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Last King of Scotland
Little Children
Running with Scissors

The writers seem like the branch to respond to The Departed, Scotland and Scissors more than others. But, who knows. It's open as always.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Babel
The Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good Shepherd

If you've seen the trailer for The Blood Diamond you'll know why I'm predicting it. Dreamgirls, Babel and Flags seem solid here. Shepherd is lensed by Robert Richardson and, well, look at his record.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bobby
Dreamgirls
The Good German
Marie Antoinette
The Prestige

I know it won't happen but I just really wanted to put Prada in there because omg. Seriously, here and Art Direction - that movie was TOPS. Damn. Oh well. These five however seem like good bets if you ask me.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Bobby
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth

Yup, I got no idea. I've noticed that this branch like "contemporary" setting set in the past. If that makes sense. Like, yes, they love big ol' period settings, but sets for movies set in the mid 1900s regularly get in so why not the sprawling hotel of Bobby? Flags seems to have more interior sets than something like Saving Private Ryan and that god nommed. Marie and Dreamgirls are obviously the big ones, but Marie could easily be bypassed. I've decided to take a gamble on Pan's Labyrinth as these branches occasionally give foreign films a shot. But you know what movie I really wanna put in here... The Queen.

BEST EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
United 93

I don't see why this can't be seen as the most obvious lineup at this stage.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Charlotte's Web
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

I don't know if The Fountain can overcome some pretty depressing critics to place here. But, doesn't Superman Returns just seem like a nomination they could find too boring and ignore (hi Revenge of the Sith!!!)

BEST MAKE UP
Apocalypto
Dreamgirls
The Queen

Yeah, I think Pirates will be deemed ineligable. They love old-age makeup so I don't see how The Queen won't be nominated. Apocalypto and Dreamgirls should also have impressive makeup.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The Blood Diamond
Bobby
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German (Thomas Newman also has Little Children)

Just a bunch of possibilities. Will Thomas Newman finally get the gold. With this lineup there would be no newcomers, which sounds about right.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Bobby
Cars
Dreamgirls
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet

I love "Our Town" from Cars but I hope "I Need to Wake Up" by Melissa Etheridge doesn't get nominated for An Inconvenient Truth. It's disappointing, that song. If the song in the Bobby trailer is the original song then it sounds impressive enough and with the apparently gigantic amount of new songs (isn't it up to seven by now? lol) I guess two will get in.

BEST SOUND
Cars
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

...i dunno. Makes sense to me.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Cars
Flags of Our Fathers
Happy Feet
Superman Returns
World Trade Center

You got me beat.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Australia - Ten Canoes
China - Curse of the Golden Flower
Canada - Water
Germany - The Lives of Others
Spain - Volver

LOL, I know. I'm completely biased in my prediction of Ten Canoes, but 'tev. I don't like you anyway. Spain is the only lock in a category that you can almost never say has locks (House of Flying Daggers anyway). That's why I'm not predicting Pan's Labyrinth here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Happy Feet
Ice Age 2
Monster House
Over the Hedge

I've predict Flushed Away over Ice Age 2 but money talks, for this category its twofold. Firstly, Ice Age 2 made just under $200mil. Secondly, apparently Dreamworks and Aardman are having a falling out so they're not gonna want to spend money on Flushed Away.

And I have no idea about the docos or shorts. So that's it folks. Done and done.