July 4, 2006

Mid-Year Oscar Predix

Well, it just passed the very middle of the year (go financial year tax returns!!!) and so I thought I'd give a quick rundown of where I think Oscar is going. I'm most likely completely wrong, but who cares? it's super fun!

Best Picture
Babel
The Black Dahlia
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
World Trade Center

Who knows. Dreamgirls could hit big or be another Memoirs of a Geisha (I hope not). Dahlia and Shepherd are two big period peices, Babel could slide into a In the Bedroom or Capote slot (I was gonna put Little Children in there but changed it, although that's probably more likely). World Trade Center I am predicting will get in of sentiment. It'll move people. But who knows (I'm predicting a twist though in Best Director, below)

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Robert DeNiro, The Good Shepherd
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Innaritu, Babel

I'm not confident here because it's three first timers and one of the others is a foreign dude. DeNiro seems like a good bet (actor - director) as does Condon (BP frontrunner). Innaritu may break through with Babel (21 Grams scored a couple of acting nods) and he won at Cannes. I dunno. Greengrass and Almodovar are the wildcards I threw in. I just have a feeling about Volver - Almodovar isbecoming this generation's Fellini to the Academy (ya know, the one foreign director they like rewarding), and Greengrass because... i dunno, he took a big risk and (mostly) succeeded (for most people)

Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd
Jude Law, Breaking and Entering
Derek Luke, Hotstuff
Alan Rickman, Snowcake
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

I dunno. I'm stilling hanging onto my Snowcake thing - I'm not sure why.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Running With Scissors
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Sigourney Weaver, Snowcake
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Filled with lots of movies that will only get one or two nominations (as has been the trend of the last few years). Streep has jumped a huge giant hurdle with Prada in that the film has made a tonne of cash! It could reach $100mil and if so... watch out (it's already bested her last nominated perf in Adaptation after 1 weekend). Penelope I just have a feeling about (as I do Volver) and the Cannes win can only help. Bening is Bening, and Winslet is Winslet. I went with Weaver to return with Snowcake but that's one of my random punts. I really wanted to put Kidman in though. Really. And not just cause I love her.

Best Supporting Actor
Steve Carell, Little Miss Sunshine
Brian Cox, Running With Scissors
Robert Downey Jr, Fur
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Michael Pena, World Trade Center

Murphy seems pretty solid right now. Carell is sure to get plenty of press as the depressed gay man and gay is all the rage (on a side note, am I screwed up in the head to find the man sort've really good looking? I don't know what happened there. Maybe it's the beard? eep) and it looks like a great film too. Cox could finally manage a nod too working with Bening. Downey Jr has gotten good press for Fur and Pena... well, they loved Crash and I am predicting this will get a BP nod so...

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, World Trade Center
Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, World Trade Center
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Carrie Ann Moss, Snowcake

Man, I really wanted to put Jennifer Connolly in here, but decided they might throw in some lighter fare in the form of Collette who, if the role is good, could be easily nominatable (see The Sixth Sense). The two World Trade Center girls could fight it out and end up here together (they're sure to have big Oscar clip moments). Moss, again from Snowcake I'm going out on a limb with while Hudson should have it made, but...

Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Breaking and Entering
The Good Shepherd
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver

Little Miss Sunshine has a Sidewaysey vibe to the dialogue I feel. Babel could get in along with the film if it's tighter than his other two pictures. Almodovar's Volver could really shine here (no queer-noir in this movie) and The Good Shepherd and Breaking and Entering seem like good enough bets

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Black Dahlia
Dreamgirls
The Good German
Little Children
A Prairie Home Companion

lol, who knows. I figured Black Dahlia had to get another major nom. I went with A Prairie Home Companion as a left-field choice just cause I could. The other three seem like good choices, but who knows, really!?

Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Flushed Away

Obviously I haven't seen it, but GO HAPPY FEET! Flushed Away is Aardman and Cars is Pixar. Seems like good bets.

Best Costume Design
Bobby
The Black Dahlia
Dreamgirls
Goya's Ghosts
Marie-Antoinette

I didn't know whether to put in Bobby or The Prestige. I went with Bobby and it's giant ensemble of classic duds over The Prestige's royal magicians. The other three seem like logical choices at the present time though.

Best Art Direction
The Black Dahlia
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Marie-Antoinette
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

I don't really have much to say here.

Best Cinematography (my favourite tech category every year, although they usually screw it up something shocking)
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Fathers
Marie-Antoinette
Miami Vice

lol, I just realised this is the only category I have Flags of our Fathers and The Departed competing against each other in. Way to go me (?). I dunno, these seem like possibilities. Miami Vice I threw in purely because it looks like it could match Collateral and even the cinematographers branch know they missed the boat on that one.

Best Editing
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Fathers
The Good Shepherd
Miami Vice
United 93

I was gonna put World Trade Center in over Miami Vice but thought against it. That film has two editors, and while United 93 does too I don't think they'll go with that. United just seems different, like I believe this is one spot that it has a great shot at even winning. Miami Vice I threw in cause Collateral scored here too. The others I chucked in cause they seem standard. I know this only matches 2/5 with Best Picture but after this year's race... blah

Best Visual Effects
Charlotte's Web
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
World Trade Center

Yes, I didn't put Superman Returns in for a reason.

Best Make-Up
Dreamgirls
Goya's Ghosts
Marie-Antoinette

I dunno. Seems logical to me.

Best Original Score
Babel
The Black Dahlia
Breaking and Entering
Charlotte's Web
Little Children

I was gonna put A Good Year in there but I couldn't find who did the score, so I threw in Gustavo Santaolalla for Babel. The rest make sense when you consider who does them (except for Mark Isham's Black Dahlia which I just threw in as a newcomer

Best Original Song
Cars
Charlotte's Web
Dreamgirls
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Fathers

Dreamgirls already has multiple new songs so it could easily get in two. Open Season seems prime for a Phil Collins/Sting type song. Flags of our Fathers reeks of having a U2-esque Gangs of New York song in it, and Charlotte's Web probably has a song.

edit: I took out Open Season and replaced it with Cars because I've heard the original song from that movie and it's really good and seems very Oscar-able - plus, it's Randy Newman. They heart him

Best Sound Design
Cars
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Fathers
Miami Vice
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Ummm...

Best Sound Effects Editing
Cars
The Black Dahlia
Flags of our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
World Trade Center

I dunno. This category has been expanded to 5 so it's even harder to predict. These give seem sorta logical.

Best Foreign Language Film
Australia
Brazil
Czech Republic
France
Spain

I dunno. I went off the deepend and predicted Australia (Ten Canoes would be our submission - and if they don't submit it they're stupid. It's not in English and it's apparently brilliant, plus they like comedy in this category). I just chose a bunch of other countries. I wonder if Spain will submit Volver (after Almodovar cancelled his Spanish Film Union membership, or whatever it's called). France is usually in play, Brazil could have something, as could the Czech Republic. But, really. Who knows.

As you can see, I don't think Martin and Clint are gonna be going head to head again. And I don't think Haggis will be nominated for the, what? fifth time in three years? Whatever. I know they're all gonna turn out wrong, but whatever. It's fun. I'd add pictures, but i'm tired.

5 comments:

DL said...

Go Little Children for all major categories! I have a feeling that this could be exactly like In the Bedroom, with nominations for Best Pic, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, with Todd Field getting the rude snub for the second time.

Kamikaze Camel said...

It's odd that someone like Todd Field would be snubbed twice, considering someone in a similar vein (I speak of Stephen Daldry) has two nominations for Best Director.

JavierAG said...

OT, but you know, I was chatting to some people from IMDb earlier today, and they're like, "Do you know Stale Popcorn? I love Glenn from that site". It's like, the whole Universe thinks you're amazing. And you are. End nonsensical rambling.

Kamikaze Camel said...

What? Who are these people and why are they saying that cause I didn't pay anyone.

:P

that's awesome though. Why don't they ever comment? I heart comments.

RC said...

i agree little children is starting to "feel" like it's an it movie.

in my mid year oscar predictions i just posted best picture on which we match in only two nominations.

Strange Culture: Oscar Best Picture Nomination Predictions

The Good Shepherd and Dreamgirls.

--RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com