August 26, 2007

Oscar Predictions - 26/08/08

Because I can and I'm bored. Predicted winners (because I'm craaazy) in bold. To see where I was on 05/03/08 click here. I'm loving that I went beserk wild for Atonement because apparently it's doozy, but we still don't have much word about any of the other contenders. Oh well.

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Gone Baby Gone
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I figured I had to keep more than just Atonement from my original predix and I don't know why I'm still on Gone Baby Gone. I just am. I'd predict In the Valley of Elah but the poster was dreadful. I'm reading books by their covers.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
? Coen, No Country for Old Men
Todd Haynes, I'm Not There
Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson's War
Joe Wright, Atonement

I'm never sure what Coen brother is directing. Is it one? Or both? Do they alternate?

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Benicio del Toro, Things We Lost in the Fire
James McAvoy, Atonement
Joaquin Phoenix, Reservation Road

It was del Toro or Lee Jones so I stuck with who I originally predicted in March (del Toro) cause that'd be sucky if he ended up nominated and I dropped him.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose (unfortunately)
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Keira Knightley, Atonement

I sense that now The Invasion has been released and died it's death that the tides will change for Kidman and this will be a big "THAT'S why we love her" moment. Unless she doesn't do press for it. I'm still tentative about Knightley but... who else?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Ed Harris, Gone Baby Gone
Armen Mueller-Stahl, Eastern Promises
Mark Ruffalo, Reservation Road
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton (or Cassandra's Dream?)

I dunno. Makes sense to me. And it's obvious they're gonna do a Lead/Support thing with Phoenix/Ruffalo.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Charlie Wilson's War
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Abbie Cornish, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Susan Sarandon, In the Valley of Elah

I couldn't decide with Atonement girl to predict so I stuck with Blunt. She'll get there eventually, but will it be this year for a flick I'm predicting for BP? Why not, I say. I hope Cornish doesn't have a Uma/Dangerous Liaisons on her hand where her work will get completely ignored?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Brave One
Eastern Promises
I'm Not There
Margot at the Wedding
Ratatouille

I'm surprising myself by keeping 4/5 of my original predix for many categories, just like here. Just a crazy hunch on the Rat win. Wouldn't that be a blast?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Gone Baby Gone
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I'm keeping Paul Haggis away because he can't be nominated every single time he types some words on a page (Last Kiss obviously doesn't count).

BEST EDITING
American Gangster
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
There Will Be Blood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James...
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

BEST ART DIRECTION
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

BEST MAKE-UP
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
The Golden Compass
Transformers

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Gone Baby Gone
Manolete
Ratatouille

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Enchanted
Hairspray
Hairspray
Mr Margorium's Wonder Emporium
Once

Margorium just seems like the perfect film for some aging rock star to sing a mid-tempo song about love and how the world is such a crazy place and to place it over the credits. Instant nomination, non?

BEST SOUND DESIGN
Beowulf
I Am Legend
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Transformers

BEST SOUND EDITING
Beowulf
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Beowulf
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

I'm so glad I didn't predict Shrek the Third back in March. That series was destined for a swift kick up the duff.


It feels so good to not predict Spider-Man 3 for anything.

8 comments:

J.D. said...

Beowulf tis not eligible. It's motion capture, like The Polar Express and Monster House (enough is enough Bob), and they've crossed that out on the list of legit. animation. I'd go with Persepolis, because if they do indeed go with Shrek, it's because they're ALL idiots.

J.D. said...

I also have a strong giddy feeling that Marianelli's score for Atonement will be among the all-time levels. It just seems so right, ya know?

(And if I were you I'd be considering Desplat's chances with Lust, Caution too, not just The Golden Compass... [giddy screech]

Kamikaze Camel said...

No NC17 film has ever been nominated for anything before (right?) and we all know from past year's experience that Desplat's best scores from small art films don't get nominated.

I thought they only elimated movies like Waking Life and A Scanner Darkly. Is it eligible for visual effects?

J.D. said...

Waking Life and A Scanner Darkly were both eligible. So were Pol Ex and Monster House. But not anymore. The latter two and Beowulf are motion capture, if you think of it as animation, it's like sugar-free cookies. They say their are, yet what makes them cookies is gone. And the Academy finally realized that sugar-free isn't good. So [whatever system is used for ASD + WL] and motion capture are ineligible. Better explanation here

adam k. said...

Why is no one predicting Clive Owen? Is it cause it'll be "all about Blanchett"? Well, that's why he'll be nominated in SUPPORTING. They're called coat-tails, people. She'll have long ones.

Also, is Shrek 3 really out of it? It DID make a crapload of money, and could be nommed by default.

Also, I think it's kinda dumb not to predict Spider-Man 3 for anything. Most people didn't hate it as much as you did, and even non-critically acclaimed action films generally get nommed for visual effects, sound editing, etc. Though I'd look to Golden Compass for the win.

adam k. said...

The other thing I'd say is that it's looking more and more likely that Cate'll get double nominated. Has it EVER looked so clear this far in advance? She has the one "all about her" big big role, and the one standout
"can't not consider it for awards" perf in a really cool ensemble film. Both real people. Both famous.

But will she win for one of them? I still say the combo of that "there will be a third Elizabeth film" news and some never-winning star doing something baity (I'm talking to you, Julianne and Kate) could derail her.

Chris said...

I like the idea of predicting "Atonement" all the way. I just finished reading the novel and if the film is just as good as it, then it wiill definitely win some of those gold trophies.

Also my predictions for BP are very similar to yours, but I think that it'll be "American Gangster" rather than "Gone Baby Gone" and I also think that "Cassandra's Dream" could be a contender, although taht would be wishful thinking.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Adam, the five I predicted for Supporting Actor just made tonnes of sense to me. Nothing against Owen. And obviously I'm just parlaying my feelings about Spider-Man 3 into these, but a Visual Effects nom is nowhere near certain (what with Transformers and Compass likely taking two spots) and the sound categories being, well, never clear.

Not sure about Cate. I know Juli had a lot of people saying she would win for The Hours when she was already buzzed for Far From Heaven.

Chris, I originally had Gangster on the list but I thought perhaps too genre and after The Departed they may not go for it, while Gone Baby Gone still looks to have that masculine edge that could make it a hit. I dunno. I'm basically talking out of my arse.