Oscar Predictions - 05/10/06

Here we go. Another round of Oscar predictions. Some categories are majorly redone since my last set of predictions, some are still similar. Some movies have come and gone, others are on their way and are riding buzz. All this and Penelope Cruz, whose nomination I've been predicting since April/May thank you very much.

BEST PICTURE
Babel
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The Queen

Flags strikes me as this year's Gangs of New York. A prestige film from a prestige director that gets a bunch of nominations, but doesn't win. I really didn't even want to put it in but I didn't know what to swap it with. I don't think Little Miss Sunshine will be able to hold up enough to get a Best Picture birth, and I think Bobby will suffer a bit too much from the Wiensteins (I still really wanna see it though) and all the other contenders have big question marks. So, for now, this what I'm going with. The Good German could easily be a non-factor (as I originally predicted) but who knows. And The Queen? Just a hunch.

BEST DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Steven Soderbergh, The Good German

God, I know this is not how it's gonna be. I know it's silly to predict Flags and yet not include the Clint. But I really wanted to include Almodovar and Greengrass but thought they would recognise Condon and Inarritu. I really wanted to put Scorsese in there too, but has the director's branch had enough of him and Eastwood hogging spots everytime they make a movie this decade? (er, Eastwood stuff at the start of the 2000s doesn't count, okay). And let us remember, they nominated Dangerous Liaisons, yet somehow didn't bother with Stephen Frears.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Good German
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

eep, I did it. I dropped Bening. As much as I think she looks great, and if she does get nominated she will surely be a threat for the win, I'm not that sure. I've been wavering on her for a while. The trailer makes her performance look like a female version of what someone like Gene Hackman did The Royal Tenenbaums and that didn't get up. But, still, this lineup is incredibly strong-looking. Someone has to give, even if they all look rock solid (except for Blanchett who I threw in due to my wave of Good German love)

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Blah, I dunno. Whitaker and O'Toole are looking solid. Nicholson is getting big press and as we saw with Streep in Actress, when all the talk is about one big star and if their role is feasibly up in the air, they usually gun for the Lead spot. And he's Jack so he'd probably get it too. Smith... I dunno. He's certainly gonna be out there trying to get it. I'm sure he has a few stories about his kids that nobody's heard before that will charm the pants off voters.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Emma Thompson, Stranger than Fiction
Julie Walters, Driving Lessons

Look, I'm sort of just throwing random things out there and seeing if they stick. Hudson still looks like the best bet despite nobody seeing the movie yet. Breslin is apparently excellent and not in the "i AM the craft of acting" way that Dakota Fanning always tries to appear. The last three spots I went on a weird crazy funk. I went on a limb with Blunt because she's young and hot and there's nobody else like her this year. Thompson looks to be supurb from the trailer and she needs a comeback. Lastly, Walters... yeah, I dunno. I love her so... Hmm, I really wanted to put down Rinko Kikuchi just fyi.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Tobey Maguire, The Good German
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel

Three of these are from movies I have for Best Picture so they make sense. Arkin... i dunno. He sorta makes sense. His last nomination was 1969! And this movie is much more widely seen than his last awards contender Thirteen Conversations about One Thing. Affleck could easily fall due to bad box office, which is funny considering everyone's saying this is his comeback from a string of flops.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Stranger than Fiction
Volver

Something about these nominations makes sense... but. I have a hunch about United 93. I know it's an odd one, but I have it. Let the record state that I wanted to put it in. These five however seem like viable candidates although not many people seem to be thinking about Stranger than Fiction for whatever reason. It seems like it fits perfectly into the Eternal Adaptions of John Malkovich vibe that they occasionally go for.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Last King of Scotland
Little Children
Running with Scissors

The writers seem like the branch to respond to The Departed, Scotland and Scissors more than others. But, who knows. It's open as always.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Babel
The Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good Shepherd

If you've seen the trailer for The Blood Diamond you'll know why I'm predicting it. Dreamgirls, Babel and Flags seem solid here. Shepherd is lensed by Robert Richardson and, well, look at his record.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bobby
Dreamgirls
The Good German
Marie Antoinette
The Prestige

I know it won't happen but I just really wanted to put Prada in there because omg. Seriously, here and Art Direction - that movie was TOPS. Damn. Oh well. These five however seem like good bets if you ask me.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Bobby
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Marie Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth

Yup, I got no idea. I've noticed that this branch like "contemporary" setting set in the past. If that makes sense. Like, yes, they love big ol' period settings, but sets for movies set in the mid 1900s regularly get in so why not the sprawling hotel of Bobby? Flags seems to have more interior sets than something like Saving Private Ryan and that god nommed. Marie and Dreamgirls are obviously the big ones, but Marie could easily be bypassed. I've decided to take a gamble on Pan's Labyrinth as these branches occasionally give foreign films a shot. But you know what movie I really wanna put in here... The Queen.

BEST EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
United 93

I don't see why this can't be seen as the most obvious lineup at this stage.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Charlotte's Web
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

I don't know if The Fountain can overcome some pretty depressing critics to place here. But, doesn't Superman Returns just seem like a nomination they could find too boring and ignore (hi Revenge of the Sith!!!)

BEST MAKE UP
Apocalypto
Dreamgirls
The Queen

Yeah, I think Pirates will be deemed ineligable. They love old-age makeup so I don't see how The Queen won't be nominated. Apocalypto and Dreamgirls should also have impressive makeup.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The Blood Diamond
Bobby
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German (Thomas Newman also has Little Children)

Just a bunch of possibilities. Will Thomas Newman finally get the gold. With this lineup there would be no newcomers, which sounds about right.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Bobby
Cars
Dreamgirls
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet

I love "Our Town" from Cars but I hope "I Need to Wake Up" by Melissa Etheridge doesn't get nominated for An Inconvenient Truth. It's disappointing, that song. If the song in the Bobby trailer is the original song then it sounds impressive enough and with the apparently gigantic amount of new songs (isn't it up to seven by now? lol) I guess two will get in.

BEST SOUND
Cars
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

...i dunno. Makes sense to me.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Cars
Flags of Our Fathers
Happy Feet
Superman Returns
World Trade Center

You got me beat.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Australia - Ten Canoes
China - Curse of the Golden Flower
Canada - Water
Germany - The Lives of Others
Spain - Volver

LOL, I know. I'm completely biased in my prediction of Ten Canoes, but 'tev. I don't like you anyway. Spain is the only lock in a category that you can almost never say has locks (House of Flying Daggers anyway). That's why I'm not predicting Pan's Labyrinth here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Happy Feet
Ice Age 2
Monster House
Over the Hedge

I've predict Flushed Away over Ice Age 2 but money talks, for this category its twofold. Firstly, Ice Age 2 made just under $200mil. Secondly, apparently Dreamworks and Aardman are having a falling out so they're not gonna want to spend money on Flushed Away.

And I have no idea about the docos or shorts. So that's it folks. Done and done.