January 5, 2006

SAG/PGA/DGA/WGA Predix

Hmm... I dunno.

Best Ensemble
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line
alt: Squid & The Whale

I dunno, really. I figure Brokeback, GN&GL and Crash are pretty good bets. I decided to stick it out for Pride & Prejudice because they've shown an affinity towards british ENSEMBLEs (see, Gosford Park's win in 2002) and Walk The Line because a couple of really strong performances are probably better for them than a whole bunch of pretty great performances like Squid. but really, it could be anyone. For some reason I wouldn't be surprised to see The Constant Gardener in there. Just a feeling.

Best Actress
Joan Allen, Upside of Anger
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Keira Knightly, Pride & Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
alt: Charlize Theron, North Country

Everyone keeps talking about the lack of competition in this category, however - last year there were only 6 legit contenders at this time and everybody basically believed that SAG gave us the final five (kicking out Thurman for Catalina Sandino Moreno). Witherspoon and Huffman was certainties one would expect. Dench is also a pretty bet methinks considering they love her so. Knightly could benefit from finally proving what all the buzz was about and being the big star of the ensemble. I chose Allen for the last spot due to good will. I dunno. But I could sooo see Theron in there.

Best Actor
Terrance Howard, Hustle & Flow
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night & Good Luck
alt: Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener

Hoffman, Phoenix and Ledger seem pretty safe and Strathain also seems like a good bet. I've gone with Terrance Howard here because it feels more SAG-like. I dunno. But I can easily see Fiennes in there, or Daniels or Crowe or possibly even Bana.

Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
alt: Maria Bello, A History of Violence, Diane Keaton, The Family Stone

God, I dunno! I've randomly gone with MacLaine AND McDormand and I really don't see both of those happening. I just am not sure on Bello here for some reason. And I feel that MacLaine appearing in the better movie and not being nominated in a long time could help her get into here. I dunno... strange.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence
alt: Kevin Costner, Upside of Anger

I feel very comfortable with Clooney and Dillon here. Gyllenhaal should get in here where there is nil chance of category confusion. Hurt... i dunno. They may wanna reward the film somewhere. Giamatti i am not confident about. I spose he's well-liked. Whatever. I just DO NOT LIKE HIM! Costner would be the greatest surprise ever (okay, not ever, but for this year's noms) if he got in. I'm not as confident as Nat to predict him but much like MacLaine he hasn't been around for a while with anything to nominate. Hope he gets it and possibly makes a last-minute rally to Oscar.

Producer's Guild Award
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
King Kong
Walk The Line
alt: Match Point

I dunno. They COULD reward Woody for ditching America and shipping overseas and taking the reigns again in stylish fashion. But the others seem more likely. Munich could very well get in there but... I feel it's more likely in...

Director's Guild Award
Woody Allen, Match Point
George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Paul Haggis, Crash
Steven Spielberg, Munich
alt: Peter Jackson, King Kong

I dunno bout Haggis, but I have a feeling about him here. I dunno.

Writer's Guild Award
Original
Allen, Match Point
Baumbach, The Squid & the Whale
Black, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
Clooney et al, Good Night & Good Luck
Haggis, Crash
alt: Nick Park, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

I. HAVE. NO. IDEA. I've randomly decided to go with Shane Black because... i dunno. It's a great screenplay? I. HAVE. NO. IDEA.

Adapted
Caine, The Constant Gardener
Futterman, Capote
McMurty & Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Mogach, Pride & Prejudice
Olsen, A History of Violence
alt: Kushner, Randolf & Roth, Munich

They've shown appreciation to adaptations of graphic novels before, hence AHoV. Mogach because I believe in that movie and it's wonderful adaptation (why is this not one of the Oscar frontrunners? If for not other reason than making the book (and the 6 hour miniseries) condensed into 2 hours and still a great movie. The others sound like pretty good bets!

And that's all.

Quick thing: I'm watching Letterman right now and they just showed a clip of Munich and... what the? What a boring clip.

3 comments:

adam k. said...

Good job on predicting aHoV and leaving out Munich for WGA. I felt like they'd honor it here. I really feel like it will get nommed for director/screenplay/Bello/Hurt, and I'm thinking Bello will win, but supporting actress could be any kind of surprise this year.

I really don't understand why the Pride & Prejudice screenplay is getting no love anywhere from anyone. You'd think it would be second in line in its category behind Brokeback Mountain. If it doesn't get ensemble either, I'll just be so frustrated.

I am thinking Scarlett could miss with SAG, don't know why. I am not predicting it, but I feel like it'll happen. I think she has her first globe in the bag, though.

JavierAG said...

exactly how many times did you say "i dunno..."??? LOL.

Kamikaze Camel said...

ummm... i dunno.

lol, I seriously was typing outta my ass when i wrote that for the most part. However, I did pretty good!