December 9, 2005


I'm stealing from Adam and deciding to do predix for both LA and NY film critics.

I'll start with LA. They're definitely not afraid of sweeps (see last year's run for Sideways. They're also not afriad of indi darlings (American Splendor winning for 2003). They also throw out some oddballs occasionally (Bill Nighy winning Supporting Actor in 2003 for Love Actually, AKA and I Capture the Castle). Anyway, here we go. I've looked at previous years' winners and can't really see any particular trends, but I did my best.

Best Film: Brokeback Mountain (alt. Crash)
Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (alt. George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck)
Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener (alt. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote)
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line (alt. Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica)
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Dillon, Crash (alt: Christopher Plummer, The New World & Syriana)
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain (alt: Scarlett Johansson, Match Point)
Best Screenplay: Paul Haggis, Crash (alt: Woody Allen, Match Point)
Best Foreign Language Film: Paradise Now (alt: 2046)
Best Documentary: Murderball (alt: March of the Penguins)
Best Music Score: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain (alt: Danny Elfman, Charlie, The Corpse Bride)
Best Animation: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (alt: Hoodwinked)
Best Production Design: Memoirs of a Geisha (alt: King Kong)
New Generation Award: Joe Wright (director), Keira Knightley (principal actress) <-taking a cue from Last year when Maria Full of Grace took this for it's director and actress - but, really, who knows?)

Now for New York. These guys tend to go for either the main arthouse movie of the season (Sideways, Far From Heaven, Mulholland Drive) or the big player of the season (Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan, Return of the King). I think you can tell what I am predicting they'll go for. I'm cheating with Best Picture alternate, but whatev. This is MY blog.

Best Picture: Munich (alt: A History of Violence, Brokeback Mountain)
Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (alt: David Cronenberg, A History of Violence)
Best Actor: PS Hoffman, Capote (alt: Eric Bana, Munich)
Best Actress: Joan Allen, Upside of Anger & Yes (Claire Danes, Shopgirl)
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney, Syriana & GN&GL (alt: Gary Beach, The Producers)
Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bello, A History of Violence (alt: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain)
Best Screenplay: A History of Violence (alt: Brokeback Mountain)
Best Cinematography: Good Night & Good Luck (alt: The New World)
Best Foreign Language Film: 2046 (alt: Downfall)
Best Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (alt: Howl's Moving Castle)
Best Non-Fiction Film: March of the Penguins (alt: Rize)
Best First Feature: Joe Wright, Pride & Prejudice (alt: Paul Haggis, Crash)

I seriously have no idea! Some of those are just bonkers. But if Cameron Diaz can win for There's Something About Mary, then Claire Danes can win for Shopgirl... or, i dunno.


adam k. said...

Good call on Joe & Keira... I could see that happening. It's a good way to honor the movie.

Also, George Clooney may very well win director from LA. But I'm sensing that Ang Lee will score big with critics' groups this year. In 2000, they went with Soderbergh and I think now it's his turn. And really, I think he's headed for the oscar as well. They owe him and they know it.

I'm feeling strangely confident in Bello for NY. It just seems like where she'd score (but it could be Scarlett... or hell, Rachel McAdams, for all I know).

And NY's best actress could be ANYone... they make insane choices in this category... I'm expecting someone along the lines of Kilcher, Linney or Danes, but honestly I think it might be someone even more shocking, like a Cameron Diaz/Hope Davis kind of jawdropper, especially in such a wide open year.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Remember when NY randomly awarded The Secret Lives of Dentists with Best Screenplay (and Best Actress for Hope Davis alongside her other movie). I wonder if we'll se anything like that.

I think Ang Lee is gonna win the Oscar. Brokeback I don't think at the time. Pic/Dir split this year I think. Unless Brokeback can sprint to the finish.

adam k. said...

What would win picture if Ang Wins, though? I mean, MAYBE Walk the Line, but that's a stretch. And I have no faith in King Kong's ability to win the big one. And I don't see Munich winning without Spielberg (or at all, really). I just don't see anything else winning... and Brokeback is not the kind of film that would win director only... is it?

Kamikaze Camel said...

See, I've thought all along that if Ang Lee won Best Director but the film didn't it would be because the Academy really wanted to reward the movie but couldn't mustre up the balls to give it Best Picture.

I don't know what could win BP, but... i dunno. I still have my doubts is all

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