March 5, 2006

Oscar Prediction (4:31, March 5 2006)

er, but my March 5 is your March 4, so... whatever.

Several races are very hard to make a prediction due to an abundance of possibilities. And then there are those are hard to predict because we know how it's gonna end up and it's sad saying Heath Ledger will lose...

However, one thing that'd be AWESOME. A complete Brokeback Mountain sweep. It's not like it's COMPLETELY out of the realm of possibility. I reckon the film's respective nomination in each category is running either first or second. And it wasn't nominated for massive amounts of awards. It's diehards will most likely be voting for it in as many categories as possible. Hmmm. I'd love that to happen (even if it is silly daydreaming)

Best Picture
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Crash

Best Director
Will Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.

Best Actor
Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Should Win: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain

Best Actress
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Should Win: Joan All...oh, sorry. She's not nominated. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Spoiler: Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice

Yes. Keira. SHUT UP!

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: George Clooney, Syriana

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Should Win: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Michelle and Amy Adams, Junebug (so competitive)

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Match Point
Spoiler: Good Night, and Good Luck.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Capote

Cinematography
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Spoiler: Good Night, and Good Luck.

Art Direction
Will Win: Pride & Prejudice
Should Win: Pride & Prejudice
Spoiler: Memoirs of a Geisha

ya... this is a mixture of wishful thinking and hunch. It boggles my mind that Memoirs could theoretically leave the night with three Oscars!

Costume Design
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Pride & Prejudice
Spoiler: Pride & Prejudice

Editing
Will Win: The Constant Gardener
Should Win: The Constant Gardener
Spoiler: Crash

Ya, i dunno. Another hunch I suppose.

Original Score
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Memoirs of a Geisha

It pains me to know that Pride & Prejudice isn't the spoiler in this case. Man. I hope Gustavo wins this something shocking. I will choke on something if John Williams gets this. If he does I will say it will instantly become one of the worst wins of the '00s.

Original Song
Will Win: "Travellin' Thru" (Dolly Parton), Transamerica
Should Win: "Travellin' Thru" (Dolly Parton), Transamerica
Spoiler: "In The Deep" (Bird York), Crash

Sound Design
Will Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: King Kong
Spoiler: King Kong

Sound Editing
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong
Spoiler: War of the Worlds

Visual Effects
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong
Spoiler: Narnia...

Make-Up
Will Win: Narnia
Should Win: Narnia
Spoiler: Star Wars

Foreign Film
Will Win: Tsotsi
Should Win: n/a
Spoiler: Paradise Now

As of this morning I was saying Paradise Now but I read some stuff about Tsotsi that is it like City of God and such and, well... they liked THAT movie.

Animated Feature
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit
Spoiler: Spoil...er...?

Animated Short
Will Win: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
Should Win: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
Spoiler: The Man and the Son: An Imagined Conversation

Documentary Feature
Will Win: March of the Penguins
Should Win: n/a
Spoiler: Darwin's Nightmare

Ever since I saw them review Darwin's Nightmare on At The Movies towards the start of last year I thought it looked interesting. And then when the Oscar shortlist came out I was all "Darwin's Nightmare is gonna get nominated". I KNEW it. And now it appears to be the challenger, but are they going to want to ignore Penguins?

Documentary Short
Will Win: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
Should Win: n/a
Spoiler: God Sleeps in Rwanda

Live Action short
Will Win: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Should Win: n/a
Spoiler: The Last Farm

...we'll see how I've gone in around 30 hours. I am avoiding all tv and internet tomorrow. The red carpet special starts at 7.30 (so something like 12:30 US time) and then the telecast starts at 8.30. I'm so excited. Which is strange because as of yesterday I wasn't that excited. I wasn't feeling it. But now I am. YAY.

8 comments:

John T said...

I think that the Brokeback Mountain situation is similar to the American Beauty situation in 1999. American Beauty could have very easily won all eight trophies (it had to have been close in Bening v. Swank, round one, along with Best Editing (The Matrix was on fire), and who saw The Red Violin coming?) Therefore, if that pattern holds it will win five (though I have it picked for four right now).

Javier Aldabalde said...

I'm like, the only person predicting "Good Night" to take Cinematography :(

Javier Aldabalde said...

I hope you never get to the end of this :(

Glenn Dunks said...

"I hope you never get to the end of this :("

what do you mean?

oh man, I am shocked at the results. How is it that Brokeback Mountain and Memoirs of a Geisha won the same amount of awards?

Javier Aldabalde said...

A warning for what was to be announced in Best Picture... I literally could not believe my ears. I swear my brain barely processed "Crash" coming from Nicholson's mouth.

Glenn Dunks said...

oh okay.

I was like "...huh?" and my friend was screaming cause she wanted Crash to win.

blech.

Javier Aldabalde said...

I assume you killed him/her.

Anonymous said...

Cool blog, interesting information... Keep it UP Microsoft certification program for bluetooth devices Outsourcing india call center oxycontin detox program Modular kitchens australia Mature blowjob free health excercise yoga plan 4 weeks prescriptions for oxycontin http://www.eliminate-credit-card-debt-9.info/debit_card_gifts.html Discountinued sectional sofa Dishwasher and microwave safe