January 30, 2006

Final Oscar Predix

Here we go. Here is my final predictions for the upcoming Academy Awards to be announced in just over a day. Wow. I have decided to throw caution to the wind and take some turns. I've decided to go out onto (rather big) limbs for The Constant Gardener, Joan Allen, Thandie Newton, Gwyneth Paltrow, Wallace & Gromit, Frank Langella, 2046, Batman Begins and have decided to go for total shut outs to Munich and North Country (not that that one is really up there in many places). I sort of don't care about it though because none of the expected fifth spot getters really interest me, so I'm gonna go with stuff I'd like to see. lol. Sorry.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line

I know that usually despite what the other categories say, the Best Picture category is usually generic and the same everywhere. However, I just can't feel the Capote love for Best Picture. Yes, people love Phillip and Catherine, but do they love it enough for Best Picture? I think Constant will get more higher placed spots on ballots. But, really... it's just a big limb to climb out on and I'm grappling for reasons to support it.

I'm also not going to do alternates because there seems to be way too many and that feels like cheating.

Best Director
Wong Kar-Wai, 2046
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck

Okay, really - i have no idea. I just decided to throw in someone unexpected and Wong seems like as good a bet as any. I decided to put in Haggis because many probably atribute their reaction to the film to him. I personally think he hampered the film somewhat (a film that I really like mind you) but still, they nominated Taylor Hackford last year, so... Lee and Clooney are great bets and I went with Meirelles cause as much as a 3/5 split could happen this year, I decided to go against it.

Best Actor
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrance Howard, Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn, Good Night & Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

I have held the theory for AAAAGES that David Strathairn is not on safe ground. It's just not a very typical Oscar performance. Nevertheless, I think being in a Best Picture nominee is the ace that will get him over the line (see Supporting Actor) unlike people like Peter Sarsgaard who couldn't get their for their journo turns. And I've been sticking my neck out for Terrance Howard since August so I better keep him in in favour of someone like Crowe.

Best Actress
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Joan Allen, Upside of Anger
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Well, three of these are locks. I love Joan and think her work here is totally deserving of a WIN let alone a nomination, and hopefully AMPAS notices it too. I've decided to ditch Keira Knightley in favour of Gwyneth Paltrow. I really don't know why. I've suspected she might get a nod for aaages so I decided to throw her in due to my indecisiveness on matters of Knightley/Theron/Zhang/Collette. Plus, it's a wordy role it's very all about her and maybe the whole pregnancy angle can help her! I dunno. She plays an intilectual.

Best Supporting Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon, Crash
Frank Langella, Good Night & Good Luck
George Clooney, Syriana

Dillon, Giamatti (ugh!) and Clooney seem like good bets. This is where it gets iffy. Gyllenhaal is nowhere near a safe bet. These co-lead type perfs are tought to ever get a grip on, add that to the fact that he is much more the "gay" of the two Brokeback boys and isn't as tormented about the whole thing. Plus he's young. I still think he'll get in but just. Same goes for Frank Langella. I think he'll get in purely by virtue of the movie. I was going to give John Hurt a bone, but when with Langella instead. Consider Hurt my alternate.

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
Thandie Newton, Crash
Amy Adams, Junebug

This category has been car-azy all year. Williams and Weisz are pretty much locks. Keener is also looking to be swept alongside Phillip. However, I think Adams will get in, maybe it's cause it was the first screener sent and it probably made an impression plus she's been delighting industry folk all season. I then decided to go with Thandie Newton. I figure she could get swept along with the film plus she has two big scenes with likely nominee Matt Dillon and her scenes are big focal ones - the heart of the film belongs to the scene with her and Dillon in the car explosion.

Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

If this category weren't so thin I'd say Woody Allen should be afraid of missing out, but as is I think he's in. George and team will make it too, as will the Crash Men. Squid will get a nomination of appreciation here and that leaves the last spot. I originally had Cinderella Man, then had Cache (Hidden) but decided to go back to my original choice of the slueth and his dog. They never shy away from animated films and the film has a gem of screenplay... so why not?

Best Adapted Screenplay
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence

Four of these are fairly safe I reckon (those being the final four) - i always suspected Violence would get in fairly easily and now that Syriana has gone original but through mishaps, it's definitely in methinks. After that I hit a wall. Walk the Line? King Kong? And that's when I came up with the idea that it is here they could reward the revitalised Batman franchise (of which they have sorta likes in the past) with a major nod. I don't have that much confidence in it appearing here, but thought I'd give it a go.

Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Good Night & Good Luck
The New World

I know, I know - I'm excluding Memoirs of a Geisha, but if the cinematographers couldn't see how brilliant Dion Beebe's work on Collateral was last yeah then why should find his pedestrian work here any different? The three Best Picture predicted movies seem like pretty solid bets here. I have then decided to go for the sepia depression era Cinderella Man and the wide-open grasslands of Malick's The New World - hey, it worked for Days of Heaven and The Thin Red Line.

Best Art Direction/Production Design
Batman Begins
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Good Night & Good Luck
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha

I really want to say Pride & Prejudice but I feel Batman Begins is getting my last spot. I think the final three listed are pretty safe bets (even if Geisha's sets are historically incorrect - just like everything else in that movie) and I think they'll go big-bold and brassy fantasy in the form of Charlie. Batman seems like the understated yet really quite obvious choice they might go for - what with alleyways, mansions, tibettan prisons and the entire Gotham City that was built in a plane hanger! Would love to see 2046 figure in here.

Best Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Walk the Line

I feel confident about Memoirs! er, sorta confident on P&P and the rest are just wild guesses much like last year's Very Long Engagement. Fantasy sci-fi, pure fantasy and reality based musicians (plus, that signature black) I think will seel the deal.

Best Film Editing
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line

Sticking with the final five for BP. Even if Gardener doesn't make it to Picture like I am predicting, i think it'll still score here.

Best Visual Effects
Batman Begins
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

I feel sort of confident about this category. King Kong and Star Wars seem pretty solid and Batman just feels rewardable here over something like War of the Worlds.

Best Make-Up
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
A History of Violence
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Narnia seems safe and Star Wars just feels right. I did decide to go with Cinderella Man for it's depression era dirt and grime, but then remembered they sort of like facial disfigurements, so went with Violence.

Best Original Score
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

I really hate predicting Kong but what else is there? I couldn't decide between Elfman's Charlie or Corpse scores and think the music branch can't either (plus, he's not a favourite of theirs like Horner or Howard). Blah.

Best Original Song
The Chronicles of Narnia - "Can't Take It In"
The Constant Gardener - "Dicholo"
Crash - "In The Deep"
The Producers - "There's Nothing Like A Show on Broadway"
TransAmerica - "Travelin' Thru"

er, I haven't a clue. TransAmerica and Crash seem like solid bets (rightfully so), as does The Producers (not necessarily so). I chose to go with Narnia cause it's Imogen Heap and I love the thought of Imogen being an Oscar nominee (plus, the song's pretty decent). I also chose Gardener cause the song is pretty great and after last year's Motorcycle Diaries thing i thought it could figure into the race.

Best Sound Design
Batman Begins
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Walk the Line
War of the Worlds

er, when in doubt... I chose four big blockbusters and one musical. I know Crash and Geisha (wtf??) made the CAS list, but I dunno. I don't feel condifent putting them down.

Best Sound Editing
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds

Whatever. Don't really know much bout this, and Batman didn't make the finalists.

Best Foreign Film
Perhaps Love - Hong Kong
The Land Has Eyes - Fiji
Mother of Mine - Finland
Paradise Now - Palestine
Tsotsi - South Africa

Yeah, i have no idea. I chose Palestine and South Africa cause they're apparently great films - the reason why i did NOT choose France. It's apparently just another oh-so-french movie (it's been out here for a while and has done significant box-office though). It just looks soooo boring and cliched. I decided to throw Finland in cause it sounds up their alley, same with Fiji - plus the added bonus of it being like Whale Rider and how Fiji is so exotic. I then went with Hong Kong's musical extravaganza cause... it's a musical and those are moderately warm right now!

Best Animated Film
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Wishful thinking, bitches. They've liked Miyazaki before.

Best Animated Short
9
The Man Who Walked Between The Towers
Milch
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
One Man Band

Go Jasper Morello!!!!!

Best Documentary
The Boys of Baraka
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Mad Hot Ballroom
March of the Penguins

I don't think Murderball will make it. These all sound like likely nominees - i chose Darwin cause I'd actually heard of it and those things I'd heard were positive.

And I have NO idea about documentary short and live action short.

OH WELL, there we go. Feels good. Now, I'm gonna go make dinner. Ciao, bellas.

2 comments:

JavierAG said...

Oh my God "The Constant Gardener" has a song? If that's the case then it's SO going to make it.

And thank you for predicting an Uruguayan (Cesar Charlone). If he makes it, it will be the third nomination for an Uruguayan (and in a row!) after himself in "City of God" and Jorge Drexler (who won) for "The Motorcycle Diaries".

Kamikaze Camel said...

Cesar Charlone is totally deserving, just as he was in 2002. And yes, there is a song called "Dicholo" by Ayub Ogada. Good song, got that great African feel which I feel they'll go for.