January 9, 2006

Academy Award Predix (09/01/06)

I've decided to do my own personal round of predictions for the awards. It's annoying doing predictions around this time because everybody is fishing from the same pool and so for some people (aka, me) it may just seem like I'm merely pilfing through someone such as Nat's predix - but I'm not. These are all mine. Some are ones I've had for ages (I was probably one of the original Crash guessers all the way back in August/September when I suspected it was on a crash-course to a "big-two" (pic/dir) nomination) some a newly fresh and minted (Constant Gardener cracking the big five). I've also decided to have a little fun and give a far-our prediction for some categories. A selection that while isn't out of the realm of possibility, would very much get many "ooh, now THAT I didn't see coming!" on Nomination Morn. I've also included some would-be shockers in the actual predix. It's more fun that way! Oh, well. Here we go.

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line
alt: Capote
WOW: A History of Violence

Okay, I just have one of those feelings about Gardener, okay. It's one of those movies that people feel very passionately about. Same for all the nominees bar Walk the Line - however I can see that movie getting on tonnes of ballots in around the middle, which I think is good. Capote, I'm still not there on. And Munich is still hovering however, now with it's box-office being nothing to crow about, it'll probably fall to the Cinderella Man syndrome.

Best Director
Woody Allen, Match Point
George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
Wong Kar-Wai, 2046
Alt: Steven Spielberg, Munich or Paul Haggis, Crash
WOW: er, I think I've covered that already but, Michael Heneke could definitely show up for Cache (Hidden))

Okay, hear me out. I've decided to take the plunge and go for someone crazily out of the box. People keep saying that "not enough academy members have seen [insert movie title]" but it's only the DIRECTOR'S BRANCH who need to see it. That's how the radical spot happens. They take notice of someone and reward them. I figure that if any branch of the Academy is going to honour 2046 it'll be this one (or the production designers - this film has three cinematographers, has that EVER happened before? Three people nominated for one film's cinematography?). They've been known to reward foreign directors and it's one of those oh-so-beautiful romance movies that they could fall for. However, much like In the Mood for Love - it's chances are hampened by so many contenders. After the alternates there are at least two others Cronenberg and Miller + Heneke and we can't discount Mangold for his possible BP nominee. Crikies. So many contenders.

Best Actor
Terrance Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night & Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
alt: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
WOW: Ralph Fiennes The Constant Gardener

I will NOT let anyone take this one away from me. I have been one of Terrance Howard's biggest supporters (and I haven't even seen the film!) in this category for aaages. I think both Howard and Strathairn are on equal footing to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see either of them fail to get in. How sad is it that I'm resorting to Ralph Fiennes being an out-of-the-blue nomination? Sigh. I want him in this race!

Best Actress
Toni Collette, In Her Shoes
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Keira Knightly, Pride & Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
alt: Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
WOW: Claire Danes, Shopgirl

Sigh. I'm preparing myself, okay! It's so sad to think Joan Allen's second best performance ever will get swept under the Oscar rug just like her actual best (that'd be Pleasantville y'all). However, I'm replacing her, ahem, Toni Collette. I. HAVE. NO. IDEA. I figured It's gonna be one of those years. Charlize is boring so why not go with someone they've liked before and who gives a really well-regarded performance? This category is gonna switch around a lot. I'm stabbing in the dark, here.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins, Mrs Henderson Presents
William Hurt, A History of Violence
alt: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
WOW: Kevin Costner, The Upside of Anger

I know it's dumb to continue betting against the tide with Giamatti but I didn't know who to bump. I am resisting letting Jake out of the five right now although I actually think he could be the easiest for AMPAS to ignore (er, other than poor Ann Hathaway). Kevin Costner though? Man, that'd be sweet.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
alt: Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes, Catherine Keener, A History of Violence
WOW: Thandie Newton or Sandra Bullock, Crash

I'm so glad Williams and Weisz are out in front - they deserve it. McDormand sounds logical. Johansson is looking significantly weaker after the SAG snub but I feel she can still knock one up for AMPAS. Amy Adams a wacky choice that they sometimes go for - so why not. But I can see any number of others filling in for three of these ladies. Shirley I think is much more likely than a lot of people think. But...

Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
The Wallace & Gromit Movie
alt: Cinderella Man
WOW: Kiss Kiss Bang Bang

Four of these seem like pretty safe bets as they have for ages - it is that elusive final spot that's proving difficult to choose. The Academy-friendly animated shenanigans of Wallace & Gromit? The Oscar-bait comittee of writers that "wrote" Cinderella Man. Or could they go all out and FINALLY choose a movie such as Kiss Kiss Bang Bang or The 40-Year-Old Virgin after movies such as Clueless and Mean Girls haven't gotten in the past (granted, over in adapted). I chose those wacky inventors - they like them, I'm sure, the movie was funny and it's animated and they've proven they're not shy on that front.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich
alt: Syriana
WOW: Batman Begins

Let me say this: I would LOVE for Batman Begins to snag a spot on this list. It would be... wow! Just like original, I'm not sure on the fifth spot here - however, it's not Violence that I'm unsure on, it's Munich. I just don't know about Syriana but I don't know what else they could go for? Walk The Line is probably the most likely possibility other than those two.

Best Cinematography
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night & Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
alt: The New World
WOW: 2046 or March of the Penguins

I think 3/5 here are safe, and they could be the first three listed. Memoirs is not safe here, I believe. It's Dione Beebe as well who was cruely snubbed for extremely deserving (of the WIN!) work last year for Collateral. I've gone with Pride & Prejudice for no other reason than before I loved the work in that film and think it deserves to be here. LOL, plus - i dunno. It seems like it could appeal to them. All lovely British countrysides, interior decor, etc. Plus doesn't "Roman Osin" just SOUND like a nominee's name?

Best Production Design
Charlie & the Chocolate Factory
Good Night & Good Luck
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
alt: Cinderella Man or 2046
WOW: Sin City? Not really any possible wow nominees here

I haven't seen Brokeback but from what i HAVE seen it doesn't look like it should be here over some of the others. Yes, Charlie was big and bold and garish, but it was so very noticeable, unlike Brokeback's mountain vistas and not-to-distant past buildings. I would love to see 2046 here however. That'd be awesome, non?

Best Editing
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
Walk the Line
alt: Munich
WOW: Editing isn't really a WOW category. Perhaps Cache for it's editing lack there of?

I really wanna put down all six of those! I don't know who to axe. I went 100% with my Best Picture nominees, hmmm. As Nat has said - editing is invisable, but making it visable is usually a good idea to get nominated. I figure Gardener and Crash could get in on those principles alone, plus their BP status. Brokeback's pace is very deliberate, Good Night has the old school way + intersplicing of old footage and Walk the Line is one of "those" musicals which they like. Where does that leave Munich? I dunno...

Best Make-Up
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
alt: The New World
WOW: 2046

The first and third there seem pretty safe, however I have no idea where to go from there. I chose Cinderella Man for it's depression era dirt and grime. I have no idea though until we see the bake off finalists.

Best Visual Effects
Batman Begins
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - The Revenge of the Sith
alt: War of the Worlds

Okay, Kong and Star Wars seem pretty safe, I've gone with Batman because they may wanna reward it somewhere and this would be their best bet. Plus, if they like the whole "DON'T look at me" nature of their effects then it would get in easily.

Best Costume Design
Cinderella Man
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk the Line
Alt: Casanova
WOW: Charlie & The Chocolate Factory or Kingdom of Heaven

Ya, not much to discuss here I don't think. Cinderella Man is probably the weakest here and I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall. Actually, after last year I wouldn't be surprised if ANY of these fell (remember Phantom of the Opera was a lock and then didn't even get nominated).

Best Original Score
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Cinderella Man
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
alt: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
WOW: Howl's Moving Castle

Umm... i dunno. Despite not liking Kong's score (too unfocused and no clear definable 'THEME OF KONG') i'm sure it'll get in because it's James Newton Howard and he even got in last year for The Village (which i, ahem, think he deserved)

Best Original Song
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - "Can't Take It In"
The Constant Gardener - "Dicholo"
Crash - "In The Deep"
The Producers - "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway"
TransAmerica - "Travelin' Thru"
alt: Chicken Little - "One Little Slip"
WOW: Corpse Bride - "Remains of the Day"

Confession - the only reason I've chosen the Narnia song is because it's co-written by one of my fave singers Imogen Heap and I'd LOVE to see her as an Oscar nominee. Plus, it's a pretty decent song as Oscar nominees go, so... Crash's song would be different for this branch, but appreciated. "Travelin' Thru" is a delightful song and "Dicholo" is actually sort of what they'd like I think (much like the song from The Motorcycle Diaries last year). However, when I was watching Chicken Little if the song up for consideration is the one that plays while Chicken Little is on his roof at home then it's a contender. When I was listening to it I thought "this is SO academy". I'd love to see "Remains of the Day" show up though. Imagine THAT performance.

Best Sound Design
Cinderella Man
King Kong
Munich
Walk the line
War of the Worlds
alt: The Chronicles of Narnia...
WOW: Sin City

This all looks pretty routine. Some big blockbusters, a musical and a drama/thriller type movie.

Best Sound Effects Editing
King Kong
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds
alt: Batman Begins
WOW: Corpse Bride

...er, moving on

Best Animated Feature
Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
alt: Chicken Little
WOW: Steamboy

I've decided to go with an all critically aclaimed line up! W&G is obvious, Corpse Bride seems likely, and I figure they liked Miyazaki before so why not now? I dunno...

Best Foreign Film
I dunno - can't be bothered trying

Best Documentary
Same here

lol, that's a sad ending to it. But i've been typing away all night (its 7.55am here) - i haven't slept cause I'm not tired (didn't wake up til late today). I'm gonna go for a run maybe...

2 comments:

JavierAG said...

Oh my, those are some daring predictions there (which means I love them). Now I could picture all of us Oscarwatchers convulsing orgasmically should any of these scenarios play out; just the thought of it is heavenly, really.

And just because I'm lazy to post twice, let me say that your rundown of 2006 films makes me excited about the coming year (yay!) I'm loving this blog.

Kamikaze Camel said...

thnx!

And, yes, if Wong Kar-Wai gets nominated I think I'll chuck a big convulsive fit. But the good kind.