Nat inspired me to do some predictions!
I think the NBR Top 10 will look like this (this is alpha order, i couldn't dream of putting it in any other). For all the categories I'm working around the fact that they like to reward every studio possible.
Good Night & Good Luck
A History of Violence
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
The Squid & The Whale
Am I odd for guessing Batman Begins? I dunno why.
And their #1 i also think will be Memoirs of a Geisha. Or... Pride & Prejudice Just a weird feeling. I would have put Munich and Walk The Line instead of, probably, The Producers and Batman Begins but I figure, when did the NBR's top 10 have each of the Academy's Top 5? And, if I included those two, then my current prediction of the top 5 would be in there.
Wait, how often DOES the NBR include all of the Oscar's Top 5?
I generally like the NBR though! They gave Moulin Rouge! a headstart, how could I not?
Best Director: James Mangold, Walk The Line
Best Actress: Joan Allen, Upside of Anger, Yes & Off The Map
Best Actor: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain and Casanova - i doubt they'll recognise Brothers Grimm, right?
Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bello, A History of Violence (or Zhang Ziyi, 2046 <-strange, i know)
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Dillon, Crash (or, Gary Beach, The Producers)
Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Match Point and Melinda & Melinda (do they do that for writers?)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Dan Futterman, Capote
(if they merge these two like they occasionally do, I'd put my money on Woody Allen)
Breakthrough Female: Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice (& Domino?)
Breakthrough Male: Eric Bana, Munich
Best Directorial Debut: Miranda July, Me & You & Everyone We Know
Best Acting By An Ensemble: Crash
Best Production Design: Memoirs of a Geisha (why do they award this and no other techs?)
Best Foreign Film: 2046
Best Animated Film: Wallace & Gromit
Best Documentary: March of the Penguins
Special Achievement Award: (I was going to go along with the George Clooney theory, but they gave him this award for his Confessions of a Dangerous Mind So I'm now gonna go with Tim Burton for no real reason other than to spread their wealth more.
-Shirley MacLaine, For her achievement in film or whatever
-Thomas Newman, For his achievement in film composing
Categories they sometimes have:
Best Youth Performance: Q'oiranka Kilcher, The New World
Best Musical Performance: Uma Thurman, The Producers
I think I covered most of it! I'm not doing that weird category that has 20 million nominees and no winner.
Studios that have received a nominations in some form
I don't know where to put the Weinstein's though! And Miramax! I thought about placing TransAmerica as Debut Feature, but... really?