Final Oscar Predictions

So, I suppose I should do a final batch of Oscar predictions, huh? The two categories that I am having the hardest time with are Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Each have about eight contenders that all seem logical. In the Original Screenplay category I've decided to go left of centre and choose the unconventional ones, just to be different.

I'm hoping for a surprise in Director (yes, Greengrass counts as a surprise, but Cuaron would be really swell too!) and Actress (god, how awesome would it be if someone like Laura Dern or Maggie Gyllenhaal showed up just to throw things off kilter?!) Oh well. I won't be on immediately after they're announced because I love actually watching them be announced so I wait for USA Today to come on here so I can watch Gil and Salma read them "live". Of course, "live" is several hours later than you guys, but I don't care. There's plenty of places to get your feast of Oscar nomination morning goodness. Anyway.

I've decided to have an alternate as well as selection that I really wanna see happen that most likely will not (even if some of them are ones I have predicted. Go figure.) Here we go.

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
ALT: United 93
OMG: United 93 and Children of Men

Yeah, this seems like the standard five, doesn't it? Not much to say, though I'll be shocked if something else walzes in and takes a spot.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
ALT: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima / Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
OMG: Well, Greengrass and Alfonso Cuaron

Not sure if del Toro had enough time to really get the director's to forget Greengrass. I'd say the same thing about Eastwood, but he's Eastwood so he's a permanant FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ad. I really do think Greengrass will get a nod though. It just seems like the sort of thing this branch does. Although I could see either of the other men in there. Or even a 3/5 split with Picture if you take out Condon? Hmm... choices, choices... yet, really not that many.

BEST ACTOR
Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
ALT: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
OMG: Sasha Baron Cohen

I just really want Cohen to get in. Seriously, in years time when people discuss actors Cohen will be right up there. Much more than O'Toole in Venus or possibly even Whitaker in Scotland. Whether they recognise this or not is to found out soon - the SAG omission is ominous, but I wanna gamble.

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
ALT: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sherrybaby / Naomi Watts, The Painted Veil
OMG: Laura Dern, Inland Empire

As much as I'll be happy for Winslet to make it (I love the lass), especially considering the short change the movie got at cinemas so far, I just really want something to happen in this category. A year that had just amazing female performances and the same five essentially nominated everywhere is sad. Sad for all the Gyllenhaals, Derns, Watts', Mols and so ons of the arena.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
ALT: er, everybody... but especially Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children
OMG: Stanley Tucci, The Devil Wears Prada

Okay, so I'm going out on a big ol' limb and predicting Affleck purely because I sorta want him to get a nomination. Pitt? Blech. Nothing performance. Sheen? Would love that alot actually but when you have a film that's surrounded by a big performance from a star the up-and-comer can get shunned (see Lost in Translation), Hounsou couldn't get nominated in two Best Picture contenders (well, Amistad was believed to be one until it wasn't) and only managed one when he got AIDS and died, so I'm not putting him in... and then there's Jackie Earle Haley. I bandied with putting him in and I know I probably should, but... I can easily see this perf as being one that critics love, but the Academy doesn't go for. Too gross and creepy and the film is so tiny. Although it'll be a great story if he gets nominated. I haven't seen the film (not out til Feb I believe) so don't really have a preference.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada / Vera Farmiga, The Departed
OMG: Emily Blunt!!!!!!!omg!!!!

Okay, I really want to put Blunt in. Like, if I put her in I'd be semi-confident... but, who to take out? I have a feeling the two Babel girls are joined at the hip and Breslin is the cutie from Sunshine so I'm sure they won't pass on her. Hudson is, well, Hudson. I have a feeling Blanchett could get snubbed (they've only ever nominated her twice, remember!) so it'd be her to go, but... I can't do it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Volver
United 93
ALT: Pan's Labyrinth / Letters from Iwo Jima / Stranger than Fiction
OMG: Volver and/or United 93

Yeah, Those top three look pretty solid, but then it gets tricky. I have a sneaky suspicion that United 93 will get in, but that last spot? Eeep. I just chose Almodovar, but who knows. Could there actually be up to three foreign language films nominated here? Remember, like, at least two thirds of Babel is not in English. Hmmm.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Children of Men
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Thank You For Smoking
ALT: Notes on a Scandal
OMG: The Devil Wears Prada / Borat

So, umm, I'm ditching Notes on a Scandal. I'm not sure why, I just am. They didn't nominate Marber for Closer and this one is even less praised for it's writing and both Children of Men and Notes didn't get WGA nods, so I'm predicting they'll go with Men for something different. Although maybe something even crazier will happen. The Painted Veil or The Illusionist perhaps? BTW, I really hope the newfound love for the Prada screenplay does indeed get it to a nomination. YAY!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
ALT: Babel / The Painted Veil
OMG: The Black Dahlia

So, they didn't nominate Collateral and I'm predicting the same digital fate for Apocalypto, but I'll probably be wrong. Whatever. And, yeah, I'm choosing Blood Diamond cause it's all African vistas. The rest seem to make sense, so we'll see...

BEST ART DIRECTION
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
ALT: Curse of the Golden Flower / Marie Antoinette
OMG: The Black Dahlia

I've thought Flags would get it's art director Henry Bumstead one last nomination since I saw the film so I stuck with it to give that film it's only nomination. The rest all seem to make sense, right? I think there will be resistence to Marie and it's use of Versailles (like it received from the Art Director's Guild), but it could still easily get in, same for Golden Flower.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Painted Veil
ALT: Pan's Labyrinth / Bobby
OMG: The Devil Wears Prada / The Black Dahlia (sensing a theme?!)

I'm throwing caution to the wind and predicting a rare contemporary nominee in the form of The Devil Wears Prada. The rest all seem pretty solid if you ask me.

BEST EDITING
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93
ALT: Casino Royale
OMG: Casino Royale / The Devil Wears Prada

...I dunno. This seems like a good enough roster. I think The Queen's place as a Best Picture nominee and it's splicing of real and filmed footage (ala last year's Good Night, and Good Luck) will get it in here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Night at the Museum
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

meh, I dunno.

BEST MAKE-UP
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige
ALT: Apocalypto
OMG: Umm... er... The Devil Wears Prada, even though it's not on the shortlist

Umm, yeah, whatever. I'm predicting an Apocalypto shutout apparently.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The DaVinci Code
The Fountain
The Illusionist
The Painted Veil
ALT: Apocalypto
OMG: The Painted Veil / The Fountain

Again, I'm just putting in people I like, essentially. Desplat (Painted Veil) is much more likely than Clint Mansell (The Fountain), but I'm predicting him anyway. Hopefully this branch was delighted with it's newfound desire to not nominate the same people every year...? Oh, and I've chosen Phillip Glass to be nommed for The Illusionist instead of Notes on a Scandal because the former seems like a more traditional nominations... I dunno.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Bobby
Cars
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet
An Inconvenient Truth
ALT: Dreamgirls again
OMG: Okay, I CONFESS - I'd love to see Avril Lavigne sing "Keep Holding On" at the ceremony. That song is ace.

Yeah, whatever.

BEST SOUND
Casino Royale
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Happy Feet
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
ALT: Flags of Our Fathers / Babel
OMG: Casino Royale

Moving on

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Cars
Happy Feet
Flags of Our Fathers
Superman Returns
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
ALT: Casino Royale
OMG: Happy Feet

Why is there five nominees this year? NOBODY CARES

ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
ALT: Over the Hedge
OMG: Happy Feet

I fear a Polar Express style snub of Happy Feet, but I still reckon it's in.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Blackbook
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Volver
Water
ALT: Indigens
OMG: Volver / Water

Whatever. I need to go get ready to go out.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
Shut Up & Sing
ALT: The War Tapes
OMG: Shut Up & Sing

God I hope Shut Up & Sing is nominated... and I haven't even seen it yet!

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Whatever, I don't care! There's no Aussies in the group and I have no idea what any of the others are, so... bleh.

THE END. I need to shower now or I'll be late, late, for a very important date (er, Dreamgirls)