AFI Award Predictions

The AFI Awards are held tomorrow night! Here are my predictions for who will take home the awards (and who I would like to). I haven't seen enough of the Documentary/Short categories to say my votes for them, but I'll still do predictions like I would for any awards ceremony. The awards are broadcast on Channel 9 at 9.30 tomorrow (Thursday) night. They're hosted by previous winner and nominee Geoffrey Rush (tonight for Candy) and features such presenters as Heath Ledger, Cate Blanchett, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Neill, Catherine Martin, Deborra-Lee Furness, Claudia Karvan, Dannii Minogue and Daniel Radcliffe.

Tonight (Wednesday) is the Industry Awards, which is the night for the technical categories. Because the AFIs encompass both Film and Television, they had to split it up in order to remain under, ya know, four hours.

FILM

BEST FILM
Candy
Jindabyne
Kenny
Ten Canoes

Candy should just be forgotten about here. Kenny gets the popular vote, but I think it wouldn't have gotten as many Number 1 votes. Jindabybe was an exceptionally respected film, but perhaps (in some people's minds) wasn't as good as Ray Lawrence's prior AFI Best Film winner Lantana.

Predicted Winner: Ten Canoes. It was truly something that nobody had ever seen before and it has the advantage of being important, but also light-hearted. Although, I could totally see either Jindabyne or especially Kenny taking it.

My Vote: Jindabyne was a stunning drama for adults based around classic dialogue. But, having said that, It would be golden to see Rolf de Heer finally take home a Best Film award for Ten Canoes

BEST DIRECTION
Ray Lawrence, Jindabyne
Clayton Jacobson, Kenny
Paul Goldman, Suburban Mayhem
Rolf de Heer & Peter Djigirr, Ten Canoes

I don't think Goldman or Jacobson are in this race. As good as their films may have been (Kenny was great, Suburban Mayhem is the only film up for an award that I haven't seen unfortunately). Ray Lawrence continued to impress with the haunting Jindabyne that felt Aussie and also very international.

Predicted Winner: Rolf de Heer & Peter Djigirr for Ten Canoes. This team deserve this award and should certainly take it on the night. For making a film like no other ever made (true) and making it entertaining, powerful and extremely well-made and for overcoming the issues.

My Vote: Rolf de Heer and Peter Djigirr. They don't just deserve AFI awards - They deserve Oscars.

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Heath Ledger, Candy
Gabriel Byrne, Jindabyne
Shane Jacobson, Kenny
Steve Le Marquand, Last Train to Freo

This is a two horse race between Ledger and Jacobson, methinks. Le Marquant got in by virtue of a lack of contenders and Byrne while impressive (from me, a big non-fan of his, that's high praise) but Ledger is the Aussie-done-good and they could very well choose to recognise this.

Predicted Winner: Shane Jacobson for Kenny. He essentially created an Aussie classic character that will live as long as Crocodile Dundee, Darryl Kerrigan and Mick Taylor. And everyone knows it.

My Vote: Probably would go to Heath Ledger, but Byrne and Jacobson would be nipping at his heels.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Teresa Palmer, 2:37
Abbie Cornish, Candy
Laura Linney, Jindabyne
Emily Barclay, Suburban Mayhem

Palmer proved to be a stunner on debut but her film wasn't as well-liked enough to win and it was very disturbing. Cornish returns after winning two years ago for Somersault and could very well repeat if voters wanna reward her for actually sticking to the promise. Linney was the Hollywood import that blew everyone away and may be liked well enough, and respected for taking a chance on a small Aussie movie, to win.

Predicted Winner: Emily Barclay for Suburban Mayhem. She was apparently the fiercest firecracker of the year and is the one aspect of the film that everyone seems to agree on. Is also nominated for The Silence (in the TV awards) so there's that too.

My Vote: Laura Linney. Understated, but forceful. Linney was supurb. But so too were Cornish and Palmer, but Linney still takes it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Geoffrey Rush, Candy
Ronald Jacobson, Kenny
Tom Budge, Last Train to Freo
Anthony Hayes, Suburban Hayes

Hayes won last year (for Look Both Ways) and I haven't read anything about him here. Budge appeared in several films this year (including Candy and Kokoda) but I doubt he'll take it here. Jacobson wasn't my favourite part of Kenny but is probably well-liked enough to take the award alongside his two sons.

Predicted Winner: Geoffrey Rush for Candy. He's very popular and is in a Best Film nominee and his performance is very LOOK AT ME! It's him or Jacobson though I reckon and it'll be tight.

My Vote: Geoffrey. Having not seen Hayes, I can only judge alongside Jacobson and Budge and while Budge was fun, Jacobson's character annoyed me more than made me laugh (too real), so Rush would take it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Noni Hazlehurst, Candy
Susie Porter, The Caterpillar Wish
Deborra-Lee Furness, Jindabyne
Genevieve Lemon, Suburban Mayhem

Noni already has more AFI awards than you can shake a stick at (okay, she has four, but still) and she'll have plenty of opportunities to win more now that she's working regularly again (recently had Stepfather of the Bride which could be nommed next year). She's like an Australian Judi Dench! Lemon is like Hayes in Supporting Actor. And Porter's downfall will be the fact that they didn't too much like her film (unfortunately, it's their loss)

Predicted Winner: Deborra-Lee Furness. If she doesn't take this award then I'll scratch my noggin in disbelief. Seems to be the only category that everybody is in unisen about. Deborra-Lee deserves this award and when it finally gets released in America, it deserves Oscar too. Give her the prize or be shamed, AFI acting voters.

My Vote: Deborra-Lee, duh! She literally tears through this role making everybody else in the scenes with her null and void. It's a shame Hugh won't be there!

BEST SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
Murali K Thaluri, 2:37
Shane Jacobson & Clayton Jacobson, Kenny
Alice Bell, Suburban Mayhem
Rolf de Heer, Ten Canoes

2:37 is too small and dogged in controversy to win, while Suburban Mayhem seems to have lots of praise, but not enough love. De Heer's Ten Canoes screenplay delightfully plays around with the Indiginous way of life and could take the prize if they're feeling overly generous towards de Heer.

Predicted Winner: The Jacobson brothers for Kenny. One liner's galore, and legitimately funny. Consider this and Best Lead Actor the consilation prize for being the highest grossing Aussie flick in four years.

My Vote: The Jacobson Brothers. It was funny. Learn to deal.

BEST SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Ana Kokkinos & Andrew Bovell, The Book of Revelation
Luke Davies & Neil Armfield, Candy
Beatrix Christian, Jindabyne
Reg Cribb, Last Train to Freo

Cribb's adaptation of his stage play was deeply flawed and can't win here. Kokkinos and Bovell (who last won for writing Ray Lawrence's Lantana in 2001) don't have a chance either. Their film is too hated, I think. Plus, the script was majorly problematic. Armfield and Davies have a shot for the adaptation of Davies' book for Candy as a sort of conselation prize for not winning any of the other major categories.

Predicted Winner: Beatrix Christian for Jindabyne. This is a film based around words, exchanges, retorts and arguments. Christian will almost certainly become the third writer of a Ray Lawrence film to take the Screenwriting prize (which, considering Lawrence has only ever made three films, that's might impressive)

My Vote: Beatrix Christian's work was some of the very very best of the year in general and was the best in Australia for 2006.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
David Williamson, Jindayne
Will Gibson, Macbeth
Robert Humphreys, Suburban Mayhem
Ian Jones, Ten Canoes

Predicted Winner: Ian Jones for Ten Canoes
My Vote: David Williamson for Jindabyne

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Borghesi, The Book of Revelation
Phil Eagles, Kokoda
Jane Johnson, Macbeth
Melinda Doring, Suburban Mayhem

Predicted Winner: Jane Johnson for Macbeth
My Vote: Jane Johnson for Macbeth

BEST SOUND
Andrew Plain, Peter Grace, Nada Mikas, Peter Miller, Linda Murdoch & Robert Sullivan, Jindabyne
Frank Lipton & John Wilkinson, Macbeth
Liam Eagan, Phil Judd & Stephen Vaughan, Suburban Mayhem
James Currie, Tom Heuzenroeder, Michael Bakaloff & Rory McGregor, Ten Canoes

Predicted Winner: Ten Canoes
My Vote: Ten Canoes

BEST EDITING
Dany Cooper, Candy
Clayton Jacobson & Sean Lander, Kenny
Stephen Evans, Suburban Mayhem
Tania Nehme, Ten Canoes

Predicted Winner: Tania Nehme, Ten Canoes
My Vote: Tania Nehme, Ten Canoes

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
Cezary Skubiszewski, The Book of Revelation
Paul Kelly & Dan Luscombe, Jindabyne
John Clifford White, Macbeth
Mick Harvey, Suburban Mayhem

Predicted Winner: Cezary Skubieszewski, The Book of Revelation
My Vote: Paul Kelly & Dan Luscombe, Jindabyne

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Robert Cousins, Candy
David McKay, Macbeth
Nell Hanson, Suburban Mayhem
Beverly Freeman, Ten Canoes

Predicted Winner: David McKay, Macbeth
My Vote: David McKay, Macbeth

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Hunt Angels
Raul the Terrible
Vietnam Nurses
Welcome 2 My Deaf World

Predicted Winner: Vietnam Nurses
My Vote: Welcome 2 My Deaf World

BEST DIRECTION IN A DOCUMENTARY
Alec Morgan, Hunt Angels
David Bradbury, Raul the Terrible
Gillian Armstrong, Unfolding Florence: The Many Lives of Florence Broadhurst
Polly Watkins, Vietnam Nurses

Predicted Winner: Alec Morgan, Hunt Angels
My Vote: Alec Morgan, Hunt Angels

BEST EDITING IN A DOCUMENTARY
Uri Mizrahi, The Archive Project
Lawrie Silvestrin, The Black Road
Stewart Young, Raul the Terrible
Tony Stevens, Vietnam Nurses

Predicted Winner: Uri Mizrahi, The Archive Projects

BEST SOUND IN A DOCUMENTARY
Martin Friedel, Andrew Plain, Keith Thomas & Emma Bortignon, The Archive Project
Nick Meyers, Rampage
Anne Breslin, Gethin Creagh, Paul Finlay & Paul Grabowski, Unfolding Florence: The Many Lives of Florence Broadhurst
Livia Ruzic, Mark Tarpey, Keith Thomas & John Willsteed, Vietnam Nurses

Predicted Winner: Unfolding Florence: The Many Loves of Florence Broadburst

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY IN A DOCUMENTARY
Steve Williams, He's Coming South
Jackie Farkas, Hunt Angels
Jaems Grant, Penicillin: The Magic Bullet
Anthony Davison, Peregon

Predicted Winner: Jackie Farkas, Hunt Angels

BEST SCREENPLAY IN A SHORT FILM (live action and animation)
Louise Fox, A Natural Talent
Matt Rubenstein & Ian Kennedy Williams, Paper and Sand
Lee Whitmore, The Safe House
Kathleen O'Brien, Stranded

Predicted Winner: Kathleen O'Brien, Stranded

BEST SHORT ANIMATION
The Astronomer
Carnivore Reflux
Gargoyle
The Safe House

Predicted Winner: The Safe House
My Vote: Carnivor Reflux

BEST SHORT FILM
The 9:13
The Desert
Small Boxes
Stranded

Predicted Winner: Stranded
My Vote: Stranded

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN SHORT FILM SCREEN CRAFT
Adam Arkapaw (Cinematography), End of Town
JoAnne Bouzianis-Sellick & Greg Sweeney (Production Design), Gargoyle
Skye Wansey (Acting), A Natural Talent
Emma Lung (Acting), Stranded

Predicted Winner: Emma Lung, Stranded
My Vote: Emma Lung, Stranded

TELEVISION

BEST TELEFEATURE OR MINI-SERIES
Answered by Fire
RAN: Remote Area Nurse
The Surgeon
The Silence

Predicted Winner: Answered by Fire
My Vote: Answered by Fire

BEST TELEVISION DRAMA SERIES
All Saints
Blue Heelers
Love My Way
McCleod's Daughters

Predicted Winner: Love My Way
My Vote: Love My Way

BEST LIGHT ENTERTAINMENT TELEVISION SERIES
Enough Rope with Andrew Denton
The Glass House
RocKwiz
Spicks and Specks

Predicted Winner: The Glass House
My Vote: The Glass House

BEST CHILDREN'S TELEVISION DRAMA
Blue Water High
Mortified
The Upside Down Show
Deadly

Predicted Winner: Mortified

BEST TELEVISION COMEDY SERIES
Chaser's War on Everything
Comedy Inc.
Supernova

Predicted Winner: Chaser's War on Everything
My Vote: Chaser's War on Everything

BEST DIRECTION IN TELEVISION
Jessica Hobbs, Answered by Fire
David McDonald, Comedy Inc. (for Ep.7)
Shirley Barrett, Love My Way (for Ep.11)
Pino Amenta, Mortified (for ep.1)

Predicted Winner: Jessica Hobbs, Answered by Fire

BEST LEAD ACTOR IN TELEVISION DRAMA
David Wenham, Answered by Fire
Daniel Wyllie, Love My Way
Charles Passi, RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Richard Roxburgh, The Silence

Predicted Winner: David Wenham, Answered by Fire

BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN TELEVISION DRAMA
Claudia Karvan, Love My Way
Asher Keddie, Love My Way
Susie Porter, RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Justine Clarke, The Surgeon

Predicted Winner: Susie Porter, RAN: Remote Area Nurse (in a big upset)

BEST GUEST OR SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
John Waters, All Saints
Marcus Graham, Blue Heelers
Luke Carrol, RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Aaron Fa'aoso, RAN: Remote Area Nurse

Predicted Winner: John Waters, All Saints

BEST GUEST OR SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
Saskia Burmeister, Blue Heelers
Margaret Harvey, RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Merwez Whaleboat, RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Emily Barclay, The Silence

Predicted Winner: Merwez Whaleboat, RAN: Remote Area Nurse

BEST PERFORMANCE IN TELEVISION COMEDY
Andrew Hansen, Chaser's War on Everything
Paul McCarthy, Comedy Inc.
Genevieve Morris, Comedy Inc.
Kris McQuade, Supernova

Predicted Winner: Andrew Hansen, Chaser's War on Everything

BEST SCREENPLAY IN TELEVISION
Maryanne Carroll, All Saints
Gus Howard & David Clarke, Blue Heelers
John Edwards, Claudia Karvan & Jacqueline Perske, Love My Way
Karl Zwicky & Posie Graeme-Evans, McCleod's Daughters

Predicted Winner: John Edwards, Claudia Karvan & Jacqueline Perske, Love My Way

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN TELEVISION SCREEN CRAFT
Rob Meyer (Cinematography), Comedy Inc.
Ian Jones (Cinematography), RAN: Remote Area Nurse
Tim Millikan, Michael Letho & Stever Witherow (Sound), RocKwiz)
Joseph Pickerine (Cinematography), The Forest

Predicted Winner: Ian Jones, RAN: Remote Area Nurse

MISCELLANEOUS

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (tv and film)
Barry Lanfranchi, James Maclachlan & Vanessa Magyar, Wicked Science
Rose Draper & Mike Seymour, Hunt Angels
Phil Stuart-Jones, Kokoda
Simon Rippingale, Tim Richter & Nina Gibbs, Unfolding Florence: The Many Lives of Florence Broadhurst

Predicted Winner: Rose Draper & Mike Seymour, Hunt Angels
My Vote: Rose Draper & Mike Seymour, Hunt Angels

YOUNG ACTOR'S AWARD
Marny Kennedy, Mortified
Frank Sweet, 2:37
Christian Byers, Opal Dream
Mia Wasikowska, Suburban Mayhem

Predicted Winner: Marny Kennedy, Mortified
My Vote: Christian Byers, Opal Dream

There's also the internation performance award, given to the best male and female performances by an Australian in a foreign film. Last year Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man) and Emily Browning (Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events). They don't have actual nominations (they sprung this category up on everybody last year). This year I predict they'll give it to Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain maybe... Toni Collette for Little Miss Sunshine? Naomi Watts for King Kong? Or somebody crazy like Emilie de Raven for The Hills Have Eyes or Natalie Mendoza for The Descent (if it's elegable).

Oh well, I'll let you know it all went tomorrow night. eep. So excited.