Volver - Yes, they are starting the Best Picture campaign! I think Penelope Cruz, while never going to be a fully locked actress this year, is ultimately destined for the Kodak Theatre. But think of this. Out of the eight major competitors (that I can tell), only Cruz and Beyonce Knowles are aiming for their first nomination. Streep, Mirren, Blanchett, Dench, Bening and Winslet are all going for, at minumum, a third nomination (Blanchett) whereas all the rest are going for their fourth onwards. And let me put it this way: Penelope Cruz is hot. I never thought I'd say it, cause I've always thought there was something odd looking about her, but all the shots from Volver make her look gorgeous and stunning. The picture they're using the in above FYC ad is just one them. I think she's in.Dreamgirls - Was it prior knowledge that the original songs were called "Listen", "Love You I Do" and "Patience"? There is still no reason to doubt this movie, is there?
Fox Searchlight - I think the only movie of their's this year that will make it into the final five is Little Miss Sunshine, which will benefit from titles like Flags of our Fathers and Babel taking hits from critics. Last King of Scotland is falling away at the box office so it's only real shots stand in the acting and screenplay categories, I reckon. Notes on a Scandal seems poised to give Dench another nomination and possibly Blanchett. Will they give Blanchett a Supporting nod for this? A lead nom for The Good German? Both? Neither? We'll see. Water seems like a real good bet for Foreign Language Film, Thank You For Smoking? Eckhart could see a Lead Actor nom at the globes but I think the only nom it'll receive from Oscar (and even that is very shaky) is Adapted Screenplay. And lastly Fast Food Nation and The History Boys? I really quite liked Nation but it won't be getting nominated anywhere, I strongly believe. And I don't see The History Boys getting anything, but it could pop up in Actor and Adapted Screenplay. I just doubt it.
10 comments:
I think Cruz is in, too. Though I'd still place her below Mirren, Streep, Winslet and Dench because those four are such clear oscar favorites in general. Also, Mirren also is going for her third nod.
I feel bad for Bening, whose film will probably drag her down with it. And Blanchett, who I think will come up just short.
I really think it's gonna be Mirren, Winslet, Streep, Dench, Cruz. Period. Cause I just can't see any of them missing.
And I would look out for Anika Noni Rose for supporting actress. I really think she'll start surprising people by being nominated everywhere, if the film is massively loved.
Also, I thought I'd read that Dreamgirls would have 4 original songs. But 3 is plenty. At least one will be nominated.
Oh, and I too have my doubts about Blanchett in supporting for Notes. It may just be too fraudulent. But my feeling is that the goodwill for her other perfs will push this one into the mix. Plus, it looks like Dench narrates a lot of it and hence it may be from her perspective, so of the two leads, she will be MORE lead. That will help.
And speaking of fraud, I think Cruz will pull a Theron and win "best breakthrough perf by an actress" from the NBR despite having been super famous for years. Sigh.
Oh, and one more thing: I totally agree on how Cruz normally looks weird and insect-like, but in Volver she looks amazing. Maybe Pedro made her eat more? She looks healthy and voluptous and alive. I think he made her eat and the weight went straight to the boobs.
If The History Boys DOESN'T get a nod for Screenplay, I'll scream. Best movie of 2006.
While Cruz is hot (especially in Volver...it'll make you turn straight, Glenn) she had an artificial ass, and about 300 push-up bras on. Fact.
Onto less important topics:
Yeah, Cruz definitely has a shot at a nod (I saw "Volver" over the weekend. Kick. Ass.) but I don't know if they'll go for it. The film doesn't rip out your heart and tear it to shreds, and there's no transvestite in the film (you know who I'm talking about), but since they gave Moreno a nod in her first film when she was speaking in Spanish throughout the movie, I'm pretty hopeful.
And Adam...Blanchett is supporting. I'd bet my life on it (or two dimes...whichever comes first.)
Do we have confirmation that Streep is going lead? Just wondering...
Adam, I agree with you - I can't imagine why more people aren't thinking of Noni Rose as a likely nominee. I've had both her and Hudson in my lineup forever.
I'm hoping Little Miss Sunshine is the My Big Fat Greek Wedding of the year. I would love to see Abigail Breslin nominated though.
Anika could be the Queen Latifah of Dreamgirls (just with a bigger part).
The thing with Catalina Sandino Moreno though is that year was very thin for Best Actress. Only Uma Thurman stood a chance outside of the five that were nominated. But, I still think Cruz will get in, despite this year's heavy field.
Weird that 2004 was so thin for best actress in oscar terms, cause in reality it was the best lead actress year ever. Bening, Staunton, Winslet, Kidman (twice), Delpy, Moreno, Thurman, Swank, Roberts. That's TEN totally viable nominees. Unfortunately, several of them were way too small, dark or weird.
What does Ali mean the "Big Fat Greek Wedding of the year"? You mean you want it to not get nominated for much, despite its financial success? Sunshine was a much better film than MBFGW. I'm sort of torn on it, though, cause I love parts of it immensely (like Breslin), but I do see the flaws. I hope it gets the SAG ensemble nod.
I definitely see the flaws in LMS but even though it won't be in my Top 10 of the year (i'm sure of that, even though it was a B+ I think I may take it down to a B) I always wanna support the well-made comedy. THey don't get any respect these days so when one comes along that could feasibly make it with Oscar I really wanna see it happen.
The movie I'd really like to see nommed is United 93, but the readings on that one are so erratic that it's hard to get a guage.
Sorry, I should have been more clear: My Big Fat Greek Wedding was being touted as a possible Best Picture nominee for weeks leading up to the announcements and was snubbed in the end. In that way, I hope the LMS buzz is misguided.
But I would not be disappointed if the cast got a SAG nod. Like I've said before, the acting was the only thing that worked for me.
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