AFI Award Predix

The film in contention that I didn't get to see was Suburban Mayhem, but I didn't think that would come into play much anyway.

BEST FILM
Kenny
Kokoda
Jindabyne
Ten Canoes

I reckon Kenny, Ten Canoes and Jindabyne are all pretty set for nominations, but who knows. I'm sticking with Kokoda because, despite my misgivings about the film, some people still really liked it and thought it was all "important" and shit. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see Opal Dream in here as the response was really positive - everyone seemed to like that one, but enough for them to mark it on their ballot?

BEST DIRECTION
Clayton Jacobson, Kenny
Ana Kokkinos, The Book of Revelation
Ray Lawrence, Jindabyne
Rolf de Heer, Ten Canoes

Despite being a pretentious woman, I think the director's will choose Kokkinos for the lone director spot because Alister Grierson is not going to be nominated. Every issue people have with the film stems from his inexperience (people like the film because it's all patriotic and shit). Jacobson will be rewarded for making an Aussie comedy and, SHOCK, didn't suck. And Lawrence and de Heer (regulars in this category) should glide on through. I was gonna say that Murali K Thalluri was a cinch here, but has the recent backlack and big controversy against him harmed him? I think so.

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Shane Jacobson, Kenny
Steve Le Marquand, Last Train to Freo
Heath Ledger, Candy
Tom Long, The Book of Revelation

Ledger and Long should show up here without issues. The last two spot I chose Steve le Marquand from Last Train to Freo and Shane Jacobson in Kenny. Most of the intensity Freo is from that performance, even if it does go off the rails at the end. And Jacobson is really great as the lovable oaf Kenny. Gabriel Byrne, I predict, will be left off although I'd put him in before Le Marquand, Long and Jacobson at least.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Emily Barclay, Suburban Mayhem
Abbie Cornish, Candy
Victoria Hill, Macbeth
Laura Linney, Jindabyne

No change in my predictions here from last time. Linney and Cornish are superb and even though Linney's American, that shouldn't matter.. While I'm a big fan of Macbeth, I'm not sure how many others were but I've stuck with Hill and while response to Suburban Mayhem wasn't that positive, everyone says Barclay is a riot so...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Richard Birrinbirrin, Ten Canoes
Christian Byers, Opal Dream
Tom Budge, Last Train to Freo
Geoffrey Rush, Candy

I have NO idea. Rush's role is probably very love/hate and who knows if people actually nominate Birrinbirrin for being the comedic centre of Ten Canoes. Byers was a charmer in Opal Dream and Tom Budge had some good jokes in Freo, but really I have no idea. John Howard could easily show up, as could someone from Kokoda or even, heaven forbid, Linal Haft from Solo or Angus Sampson from Footy Legends.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Wendy Hughes, The Caterpillar Wish
Deborah-Lee Furness, Jindabyne
Deborah Mailman, The Book of Revelation
Susie Porter, The Caterpillar Wish

Mailman gives the final act of Revelation a much-needed boost of energy after the rape scenes suck everything out of the movie. Furness deserves to be nommed and win his category. What a comeback!! And the two Caterpillar girls are Aussie veterans (specially Hughes making it two comebacks for this category) and are well-loved. But Leah Purcell could easily snatch a spot for Jindabyne or Eve von Bibra who shone in Kenny, but was she there enough? And then there's Gillian Jones who has a BIG FAT JUICY scene in Last Train to Freo. Personally, I would really like to see them nominate newcomer Marni Spillane from 2:37 who shone through (moreso than Teresa Palmer who everyone mentions). Just like at the Oscars, this is the most "full" category.

BEST SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
2:37
Kenny
Suburban Mayhem
Ten Canoes

Kenny and Ten Canoes should show up with ease. For the last two spots I went with the polarising Suburban Mayhem and Candy. I wanted to put The Caterpillar Wish here but that might just be too unextraordinary (it's not particularly daring or out of the this. It's just pleasant) (edited cause Candy is adapted, put it 2:37 for no real reason)

BEST SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
The Book of Revelation
Candy
Jindabyne
Last Train to Freo

Jindabyne should fit snugly here, and I'm sure they'll wanna reward Kokkinos and Andrew Bovell for attempting to adapt The Book of Revelation at all. The other two go to adaptations of completely different plays, Macbeth and Freo. Although I really think Opal Dream could show up here. (edited to fit Candy in, got right of Macbeth)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Candy
Jindabyne
Macbeth
Ten Canoes

I dunno, these all sound like plausible nominees. Right? Who knows...

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Book of Revelation
Candy
Kokoda
Macbeth

Because most Australian films are contemporary, Costume Design is always a category that you could pull out four random titles and they'd look respectable. I hope Macbeth gets up there though, that was stylish design. Revelation had hooded women and performance dancers! Lol, i dunno. Candy and Kokoda owe a lot of their credit to the realistic costuming.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Candy
Kokoda
Macbeth
Ten Canoes

God, I have no idea. Macbeth should be nominated though and win. God those were good sets.

BEST SOUND
2:37
The Book of Revelation
Kokoda
Ten Canoes

I have no idea. I'm sure Kokoda will get in with it's war scenes and Ten Canoes has crickets. Lots and lots of crickets.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
2:37
Jindabyne
Opal Dream
Ten Canoes

Again. I have no idea what they're choose, but these were the most impressive four so hopefully they'll go with these, although I would really like them to throw The Caterpillar Wish a bone.

BEST EDITING
2:37
Jindabyne
Macbeth
Ten Canoes

I dunno. This lineup makes sense in theory.

We'll see how I go. I also reckon they'll give their international awards (to Aussies working in foreign films) to Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain and... let's say... well, they went with the girl from Lemony Snickets last year so I'm gonna on a limb and say Natalie Mendoza for The Descent. It it gets released here in time. Who knows though.