2007 Oscar Predictions

I'm doing my own early prediction set for next year's Oscars. We, obviously, have no idea how it's all going to pan out in the end, but it's fun to speculate now. Obviously a lot of these is speculative and my own personal biases on films are coming into play. This is all for a bit of fun though (cause I'm bored!)

I must give a big thanks to Kris' In Contention who has done a great roundup of 2006. I did my own investigating as well though, so don't think I just stole it all from him! I'm considering David Lynch's Inland Empire as being a 2006 film. For some reason nobody seems to be mentioning it (most likely because it could easily move to 2007) but apparently it's premiering at Cannes (that's what Lynch said last year)

Best Picture
The Black Dahlia
Breaking and Entering
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Marie-Antionette

I dunno. I'm assuming Breaking and Entering (by Anthony Mingella) is a contemporary film. If it isn't then I dunno. Dreamgirls seems like it could hit BIG. Marie-Antionette is a complete wildcard that I'm throwing in because it's big and lavish and everything that that entails. The Black Dahlia just seems so interesting and it could turn out SO great. The Good Shepherd I think is this year's preordained, right?

Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Francis Ford Coppola, Youth Without Youth
Sophia Coppola, Marie-Antionette
Robert DeNiro, The Good Shepherd
Brian DePalma, The Black Dahlia

Hah! I totally just went with the Coppolas because I thought that'd the such a great story for Oscar night. Father and Daughter competing. I doubt it'll happen, but man that'd be awesome. DePalma is overdue for some recognition by AMPAS and this movie could be the one. And they like Condon, so I through his musical in (it seems more in tone with the other Best Director contender of a musical, Chicago). I wanted to put David Lynch down as well, but we'll have to wait and see on that prospect. Here's hoping though!

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Goya's Ghost
Russell Crowe, A Good Year
Jude Law, Breaking and Entering
Derek Luke, Hotstuff
Alan Rickman, Snowcake

I'm going on a limb and predicting that Snowcake is going to get three acting acting nominations (and nothing else? not that I can see). But who knows. Derek Luke is young, talented and black and they need some racial diversity, y'all. Weird predicting that Law will get his third nomination from an Anthony Mingella film, but who knows. Crowe and Bardem could rebound from disappointments these last two years. I... don't know (obviously)

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Running With Scissors
Meryl Streep, A Prairie Home Companion/The Devil Wears Prada (but the latter may be supporting?)
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Sigourney Weaver, Snowcake
Kate Winslet, Little Children

The battle of four women who have all been nominated three or more times (we all know Meryl's position though) and I figured there needed to be one newie so I chose Sienna Miller for her Edie Sedgewick pick Factory Girl. This year's lineup looks particularly strong, so yay! I really wanted to put Laura Dern for Inland Empire and Nicole Kidman for Fur on there, but...

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, Lucky You
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Guy Pearce, Factory Girl
Joe Pesci, The Good Shepherd
Harry Dean Stanton, Inland Empire

I. Have. No. Idea. Pearce plays Warhol and while it hasn't worked in the past who knows about now. Murphy seems like he could be "Back!" and hopefully Pesci finally returns to a good movie with a good performance. Duvall is well-liked and seems like the kind of actor to give a nomination to. Who knows. Harry Dean Stanton is on here because I saw Paris, Texas last year and was dumbfounded to find out that movie wasn't nominated for a single Oscar! Shame, Shame, Shame. So it's here for that... plus, Stanton rocks in Lynch movies.

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, World Trace Centre
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Carrie Ann Moss, Snowcake
Lindsay Lohan, A Prairie Home Companion
Lily Tomlin, A Prairie Home Companion

I really wanted to put Judy Davis for Marie-Antionette and Scar.Jo/Hilary Swank for The Black Dahlia but didn't. I doubt Lindsay will get there, but I love to hold hope for my wonder girls. If Tomlin's Oscar intro is any indication her role in Prairie could be gangbusters. Bello I am going on a limb for. She's been snubbed twice... can they ignore her a third time (if she's good, that is). Carrie Ann Moss I've heard stellar things about and Hudson has "And I Am Telling You" as a required Oscar-clip.

Best Original Screenplay
Breaking and Entering
The Good Shepherd
Goya's Ghosts
Scoop
Volver

PEDRO IS BACK! And Woody continues his return to form. And the others are big Best Picture contenders. Is The Good Shepherd actually adapted from a book on the CIA or something?

Best Adapted Screenplay
Art School Confidential
The Black Dahlia
Little Children
A Prairie Home Companion
Youth Without Youth

Ummmm... these sound like good bets to me. Can't wait to see all of these movies. Strangely, my BP line up is 3/2 Original/Adapted. We'll see how that pans out. And, yes, I'm ignoring Paul Haggis' Flags of Our Father out of pure spite (that and I think two in a row for Eastwood movies is enough for the time being)

Best Art Direction
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
The Black Dahlia
Charlotte's Web
The Good German
Marie-Antionette

Really have no idea, just going on blind theories. I wanna put Goya's Ghosts but don't know what to get rid of. Well, I'd get rid of Charlotte's Web but I have a weird feeling about that movie.

Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
The Black Dahlia
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good Shepherd
Marie-Antionette

Again, no idea here.

Best Costume Design
The Black Dahlia
Dreamgirls
Goya's Ghosts
Marie-Antionette
A Prairie Home Companion

This list looks pretty decent if you ask me, although anything could overtake and jump in. It's still 10 months away.

Best Editing
The Black Dahlia
Breaking and Entering
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Father
The Good Shepherd

Returned to a 4/5 split with Editing and Picture after this year. Sigh.

Best Make-Up
Dreamgirls
Goya's Ghosts
Marie-Antionette

ummm...

Best Original Score
The Black Dahlia
Charlotte's Web
The Da Vinci Code
Volver
World Trade Centre

I have no idea again. But with their new found diversity who knows with something like Volver.

Best Original Song
Charlotte's Web
Southland Tales
World Trade Centre
(if five)
Dreamgirls
Miami Vice

Best Sound
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Miami Vice
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Zodiac

Best Sound Editing
Cars
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

Best Visual Effects
Charlotte's Web
Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns

Best Animated Feature
Cars
Flushed Away
Happy Feet

Best Foreign Language Film (random stabs)
Brazil
China
Japan
France
South Africa

lol, what would I know? Yay for South Africa's reneissance.

THERE YOU GO! I have completely ignored some peoples like All the King's Men, The Departed, Babel, United 93, Hollywoodland and Apocalypto - no real reason, I just couldn't fit them in anywhere, although I'm sure they will. But I never really clicked with All The King's Men last year anyway - I was always saying I just didn't think Penn or the film would make it. And I'm also probably under-estimated Flags of Our Fathers. The Departed just doesn't really fit into Oscar I don't think. Scorsese or not - his 90s period wasn't rewarding for him in terms of Oscars I think. Oh well. We'll see how I go in about 10 months time. I predict? Like crap.